Coffee Market Report
In the latest consumer stock reports, the European Coffee Federation, E.C.F. have reported that the port warehouse coffee stocks held within reporting warehouses in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, to have registered a 0.23% increase during the month of October 2024 to total 8,646,167 bags at the end of the month. The stocks are reported as 3,055,367 bags robusta coffee, 2,499,550 bags natural arabica coffee Including Brazil semi-washed and 3,091,250 bags washed arabica coffee.
This figure reported at the end of October 2024 is 2.44% higher than the same time last year when the port warehouse coffee stocks registered at 8,440,183 at the end of October 2023. Within seasonal coffee flow context, one might expect to see new crop shipments from Vietnam soon come to the fore, to perhaps see an increase in Robusta stocks in consumer market towards the beginning of 2025. The fine washed arabica coffee crop from Central America will also soon start to come to the fore, to replenish much needed stocks in consumer countries over the weeks and months ahead.
The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange continue to register gradual average increases, climbing to the highest level since June 2022, up from more than twenty-year low recorded earlier this year that registered at 253,144 bags on the 4th January 2024, to now be 949,231 bags yesterday. This marks an increase of 710,237 bags or 282.82% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 247,944 bags on 17th December 2024.
The certified warehouse coffee stocks are stored in consumer country warehouses of the exchange in Europe and in the USA. The largest contribution toward the increase in certified stocks is Brazil semi-washed arabica coffee contributing 61.28% and boosted by coffees from Central American washed arabica producer countries. Peru contributes 10.42% and Nicaragua 10.12% of the total held in exchange warehouses. The coffee origins that can deliver to the certified stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. In view of the prevailing price structure in New York, the pending grading stocks could reflect more coffee and increased registrations to the certified stocks in the weeks and months ahead.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increase by 8,880 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 949,231 bags, with 98.20% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 932,137 bags and the remaining 1.80% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 581,698 bags or 61.28% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.42% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 13,154 bags on the day, to register 78,675 bags pending grading on the day.
The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported an increase by 18,333 bags, during the week leading up to the 16th December 2024, to register a total 633,333 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.
The January 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 88.36 Usc/Lb. This equates to 27.19% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar firming by 0.10% against a basket of other currencies, a firmer Dollar is traditionally seen to be a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.270 Sterling, at 1.050 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.105 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on modest firmer notes respectively before pressured lower during the early morning session. The markets set a new low for the morning session, to rebound and find support. The support continued through the remainder of the morning session, with the markets trading in positive territory for, settling into a range. As the afternoon progressed the markets were seen to continue to trade in firmer territory before encountering resistance to drop back from the early highs and trend through par and into softer territory. Late in the day, a small degree of speculative long liquidation followed, with the US Dollar strengthening throughout the session against basket of other currencies, to see both the New York and London markets drop and set a new low for the day. As the session progressed and the activity increased, albeit in modest terms, the markets found support near to the lows of the day to recover from the earlier losses whilst trading below par and in negative territory, the New York market settled on a softer note at the close with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact, whilst the London market settled on a likewise softer note at the close with only some of the earlier losses of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 16.47% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day a likewise negative note, with 26.78% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a choppy session and with first notice day in the prompt month in London approaching next week Tuesday and open interest recorded at 11,859 lots, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
JAN 5216 – 14 MAR 324.95 – 2.45
MAR 5168 – 35 MAY 321.90 – 2.75
MAY 5103 – 37 JUL 316.95 – 2.65
JUL 5030 – 27 SEP 308.10 – 2.85
SEP 4938 – 18 DEC 292.70 – 2.90
NOV 4858 – 21 MAR 281.75 – 2.55
JAN 4775 – 24 MAY 272.15 – 2.20
MAR 4705 – 24 JUL 262.20 – 2.05
