Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease their net long position by 2.83% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th December 2024; to register a new long position at 55,712 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position by 1.82% within the market, to register a new net long position of 49,665 Lots on the day.

Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decreased their net long position by 2.78% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 17th December 2024: to register a new net long position of 38,156 lots, which is the equivalent of 10,817,057 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of sideways but trade that has since followed.

The New York and London markets are closed for the day tomorrow. The New York market shall be trading solo for a shortened day on Thursday 26th December, while the London market shall resume trade on Friday 27th December. Whilst the London market will be trading for a shortened day of trade today.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 4,405 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 990,395 bags, with 98.27% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 973,301 bags and the remaining 1.73% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 623,707 bags or 62.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.98% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 24,058 bags on the day, to register 62,732 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 100.09 Usc/Lb. This equates to 30.59% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar continued a firmer path strengthening by 0.40% against a basket of other currencies in notably quieter pre-holiday trade. The Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, whilst the Cocoa, Soybean and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.254 Sterling, at 1.040 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.194 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day the day yesterday trading to the south of par on a softer note, whilst the London market started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading on firm notes. The London market quickly gained momentum gapping higher at the outset of the early morning session. The New York market set a narrow range in the morning session in comparatively lighter pre-holiday volumes to start the day. Both the New York and London markets-built support as the day progressed, setting a ceiling for the morning session before encountering some degree of resistance during the mid-morning session to drop back from the morning highs. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market trended firmer, with some degree of support with the London market following suit. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, to see the market shed earlier gains to nevertheless settle on a firmer note at the close, in a light volume day. The London market set a new high late in the afternoon session before encountering resistance near to the highs of the day to drop back and settle on a near to unchanged modest firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged positive note with 20% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 47.37% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, albeit that both the New York and London markets encountered resistance near to the highs of the day during the afternoon session, dropping back to settle with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact, thus one may think that the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR   5008 + 6                                           MAR    327.25 + 2.25
MAY   4935 + 1                                           MAY    321.85 + 2.55
JUL     4841 – 8                                           JUL      314.10 + 2.45
SEP     4739 – 2                                           SEP      305.10 + 2.35
NOV   4649 + 2                                           DEC    290.25 + 2.40
JAN    4549 + 2                                           MAR   279.05 + 2.05
MAR  4479 + 2                                           MAY    269.70 + 2.10
MAY  4409 + 2                                            JUL     259.60 + 2.15