Coffee Market Report

The Brazil Real has meanwhile lost 8.80% of this currency’s value against the US Dollar since the beginning of December, to encourage some degree of selling within the internal market, albeit that the internal market is reportedly already well sold in the prevailing July 2024 to June 2025 season, and the next new crop July 2025 to June 2026 due to harvest in four months, and six months' time for Conilon robusta and Arabica districts, respectively. The weaker Brazil Real bringing in increased returns to producers, following US Dollar based sales.

The muted market trade sessions last week, with many countries worldwide observing midweek holidays, is likely to continue this week, as The New York and London markets are closed for the day on Wednesday 1st January 2025, will resume trade on Thursday 2nd January 2025.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York Arabica and London Robusta Coffee markets will be released later today, due to the holidays observed last week, on the 25th of December 2024.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 595 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 989,800 bags, with 98.27% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 972,706 bags and the remaining 1.73% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 623,387 bags or 62.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.98% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day, to register 65,372 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 97.99 Usc/Lb. This equates to 30.37% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, on the back of a firmer US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies, while trade remained thin due to the holidays. The Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, whilst the Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.258 Sterling, at 1.042 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.196 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading in modest firmer territory, before attracting selling pressure during the early morning session in light volumes of trade. The markets oscillated around par for the remainder of the morning session, trading within a comparatively narrow range on the day. Both the New York and London markets tracked below par during the late morning session, to extend the losses for the day’s session. As the afternoon progressed the markets continued on a modest softer path to see the New York market set a floor for the session, finding support to rebound and recover most of the earlier losses during the late afternoon session to see the market settle on a softer note at the close. The London market followed suit to also drop below par and before attracting some degree of selling pressure to see both the New York and London markets drop below par and set a floor for the day. The London market found support near to the lows to narrowly recover some of the earlier losses and settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 81.48% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 32% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close for the markets, with the New York market extending the losses from the close on Thursday, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the New York market recovered most of the earlier losses during the late afternoon session, one might therefore think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR   4953 – 88                                        MAR    322.65 – 2.00
MAY   4884 – 69                                        MAY     317.60 – 2.10
JUL     4814 – 44                                        JUL       311.05 – 2.30
SEP     4726 – 28                                        SEP       303.70 – 1.50
NOV   4637 – 24                                        DEC      290.40 – 0.70
JAN    4542 – 19                                        MAR     280.00 – 0.30
MAR  4472 – 19                                        MAY      271.50 – 0.10
MAY  4402 – 19                                        JUL        262.80 + 0.35