Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 3.97% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st. December 2024: to register a new long position of 40,093 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,366,188 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 6.11% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st. December 2024: to register a new net long position of 19,866 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,311,000 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed overall sideways trade that has since followed.

The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of December were 17.91% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 3,365,133 bags. The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for December can be anticipated to report the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 7,765 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 993,562 bags, with 98.30% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 976,468 bags and the remaining 1.70% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 629,499 bags or 63.35% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.88% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 12,330 bags on the day, to register 22,285 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 91.73 Usc/Lb. This equates to 28.79% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Federal Reserve's recent hint at a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, has investors keenly awaiting a slew of economic data due this week to shed more light on this. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, whilst the New York Arabica Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.253 Sterling, at 1.039 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.115 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on firmer notes respectively, making gains during the morning session to see both the New York and London markets continue on firmer paths for the remainder of the morning session. The late morning session saw the markets drop back from the early highs as there was a degree of selling pressure seen to weigh the markets lower. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market traded back through par, albeit under comparatively light volumes of trade, to set a narrow range for the day. The London market continued on a firmer path, gaining momentum to set a new high for the days session during the afternoon trade. The New York market dropped back from the earlier highs of the day, during a light volume session with some European market players removed from the field of play due to a holiday. The New York market encountered resistance to drop back through par, to see the market set a new low for the day. The market quickly found support at the days lows to recover and settle on a modest near to unchanged note at the close. The London market rebounded from the lows of the day to gain support for the remainder of the session and see the market settle on a modest firmer note with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market was seen to hit a ceiling late in the session, attracting a large degree of liquidation to drop back and settle on a modest firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note with 8.69% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged negative note, with 3.12% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the New York market recovering most of the earlier losses to settle near to unchanged for the day on a modest softer note and the London market settling on a modest firmer note, might inspire some degree of follow consolidation to possibly see the markets set for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR     4984 + 16                                     MAR      318.60 – 0.05
MAY      4900 + 3                                      MAY      315.50 + 0.60
JUL        4816 – 1                                      JUL        310.40 + 1.30
SEP        4730 + 3                                     SEP         304.05 + 1.85
NOV      4643 – 1                                     DEC        290.70 + 2.30
JAN       4564 – 2                                     MAR       280.45 + 2.35
MAR     4491 – 2                                     MAY        272.35 + 2.15
MAY     4416 – 2                                     JUL          263.85 + 1.90