Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease their net long position by 1.47% within this market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 31st. December 2024; to register a new long position at 56,442 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market also decreased their net long position by 1.66% within the market, to register a new net long position of 48,758 Lots on the day.
Over the same week, the Non-Commercial Speculative decreased their net long position by 3.97% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 31st December 2024: to register a new net long position of 40,093 lots, which is the equivalent of 11,366,188 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have yet to release their estimate for the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year but maintain their stance for global coffee supply at 5.83% lower than the 2022/2023 coffee year at a total of 178.00 million bags for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year. The International Coffee Organisation have likewise maintained their stance for global consumption for the October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year, to have grown by 2.25% from the previous year to reach a total of 177.00 million bags.
The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of November were 2.42% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 10.86 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first two months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 7.80% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 21.85 million bags.
The report reflects an increase in exports from South America during November, which registered a 6.00% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 6.43 million bags through to the end of November. Brazil and Colombia, the primary source of exports with Brazil reporting 7.80% growth in exports to register 4.68 million bags exported in November 2024 and Colombia reporting an 8.60% growth in exports during November 2024 in comparison to the same month last year, to register 1.21 million bags exported.
The report confirms decline in exports from Asia as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 12.00% decrease in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 2.76 million bags, largely led by a decrease in exports of 47.10% from Vietnam during the month of November. Within the ICO report, exports were seen to have increased by 24.50% year on year from Africa to a total 1.03 million bags, with the main contributors of the increase in exports during the month of November, being Ethiopia with exports registering 86.24% higher year on year at 540,000 bags.
The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures, from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, to report for November that exports were 5.20% higher than the same period in the previous year to total 370,000 bags.
The National Coffee Institute of Honduras (IHCAFE) have reported preliminary data that the country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 34,382 bags or 12.37% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 243,593 bags. The reported inclement weather over the harvest in this Central American country likely contributing to the lower export performance in this third month of the new crop year.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,958 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 991,604 bags, with 98.28% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 974,510 bags and the remaining 1.72% being held in the USA at a total 17,094 Bags. Of this, a total 630,999 bags or 63.64% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.84% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 1,885 bags on the day, to register 24,170 bags pending grading on the day.
The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported an increase by 967 bags, during the week leading up to the 6th January 2025, to register a total 735,500 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.
The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 92.84 Usc/Lb. This equates to 28.97% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with improved US employment data released yesterday to inspire investor confidence in the world's largest economy’s apparent continued resilience. The Coffee, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.248 Sterling, at 1.035 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.101 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, to gain momentum during the early morning session. Both New York and London markets built early support. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering technical buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering which saw the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session, albeit still in light volumes of trade. The New York market was seen to drop back from the highs to trade within a range on the day, while the London market was also seen to trade within a comparatively narrow range on the day. The New York market settled on a firmer note at the close with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact, whilst the London market also settled on a firmer note with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 62.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 42.22% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction with both the New York and London markets settling on firmer notes at the close, in light volume of trade. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for another hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 5019 + 35 MAR 320.50 + 1.90
MAY 4930 + 30 MAY 317.30 + 1.80
JUL 4839 + 23 JUL 312.40 + 2.00
SEP 4749 + 19 SEP 306.10 + 2.05
NOV 4661 + 18 DEC 292.80 + 2.10
JAN 4582 + 18 MAR 282.60 + 2.15
MAR 4509 + 18 MAY 274.30 + 1.95
MAY 4434 + 18 JUL 265.55 + 1.70
