Coffee Market Report

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, for the month of December, registered a remarkable 578,000 bags or 47.37% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,798,000 bags. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first three months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 1,239,000 bags or 33.86% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,898,000 bags.

In the same report, the National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia post the country’s coffee exports for the month of December to be 215,000 bags or 20.15% higher than the same month last year, at a total 1,282,000 bags. The country’s cumulative coffee exports for first three months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year look to bring forth a positive performance, registered at 448,000 bags or 14.59% improvement on the same period in the previous coffee year, to a total of 3,518,000 bags. In addition, the report forecasts that coffee production from the world’s largest producer of fine washed arabica coffee may reach 13.60 million bags, that would be a potential 20% improvement in production performance in the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year.

The year starts with largest robusta producer and exporter Vietnam, gathering pace in coffee harvest processing and delivery within the interior. The lower comparative export performance year to date against the same time last year reflective of the frontloading activity seen in the 2023/24 season, as well as the weather delayed progress in this 2024/25 crop year. The commercialisation of the current crop is similarly comparatively low, year on year, as well financed producers release coffee at a measured pace to the internal market. Coffee deliveries may be anticipated to steadily increase in flow to the key robusta coffee export port city, Ho Chi Minh within the next fortnight ahead of the Tet Lunar New Year celebrations, when commercial activity is expected to grind to a halt. It is customary for travel to begin en masse from urban environments to ancestral homes in the week preceding the celebrations, with elaborate preparation in the days that lead up to the main event. This year to be observed from 29th January, with a national holiday that spans 25th January to 2nd February, to welcome in the Year of the Snake.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 10,646 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 980,958 bags, with 98.28% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 964,130 bags and the remaining 1.72% being held in the USA at a total 16,828 Bags. Of this, a total 624,364 bags or 63.64% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.93% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day, to register 24,170 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 91.65 Usc/Lb. This equates to 28.96% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, the economic data emanating from the U.K., influencing sentiment as well as softer currency outlook, bond market uncertainty, contributing toward a mostly softer day. The leading in Oil markets maintained and safe haven Gold, firm on the day, as were the primary metals markets Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets firm. It was a softer finish for Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Soybean and Wheat markets. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.233 Sterling, at 1.031 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.105 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par, with both markets trading in limited volume. The day progressed in muted volume and both markets posted a softer track to drop back below par and trend softer for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed prominent index fund rolling activity, anticipated to continue into next week, brought improved volume to the floor, to set a softer track for the latter half of the session in New York. This market found support near the lows to plateau and settle on a softer note at the close. The London market followed suit, to and a softer session into the late afternoon session and settle in negative territory at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 65.63% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 72.32% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The New York and London markets held territory ahead of the close, to indicate a possible steady stance in early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR      4956 – 63                                     MAR     316.45 – 4.05
MAY      4877 – 53                                     MAY      313.00 – 4.30
JUL        4795 – 44                                     JUL        307.95 – 4.45
SEP        4709 – 40                                     SEP       301.60 – 4.50
NOV      4624 – 37                                     DEC      288.60 – 4.20
JAN       4545 – 37                                     MAR     278.65 – 3.95
MAR     4474 – 35                                     MAY     270.45 – 3.85
MAY     4399 – 35                                     JUL       261.60 – 3.95