Coffee Market Report
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil Cecafé have reported that the countries green coffee exports for the month of December were 10.53% lower than the same month last year, to total 3.41 million bags, this number made up of 2.84 million bags of arabica coffee down 13.08% from the same month last year and 562,978 bags of Conilon robusta coffee up 5.09% from the same month last year. One might comment that the lower export performance reported for December 2024 versus the same month last year could be attributed to continued shipment delays from the Brazilian ports due to limited container equipment availability, persistent congestion and rolling of shipment at port terminals. This leading to limitations on the port’s ability to receive and ship new cargo.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first six months of the current July 2024 to June 2025 Brazil coffee year, to be 12.83% higher overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 23.84 million bags.
For the first six months of the current year, Brazil coffee exports are made up of 18.77 million bags of arabica coffee up 8.60% from the same time last year, 5.08 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase of 27.81% versus the same time last year. The value added and soluble sector reported over the same six months to be 2.21 million bags, a 24.16% increase when compared the same six months in the previous coffee year.
The news from Vietnam meanwhile is not much altered, this largest robusta producer continues to process the harvest which is set to fuel consumer markets for the October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year. This largest robusta producer and exporter, is anticipated to produce a median estimate of 28 million bags in this coffee year, although noting that estimates vary widely by margins of up to 3 million bags. Internally, preparations are soon to be underway ahead of the Tet Lunar New Year celebrations, which will be observed on the 29th January this year and bring in the year to the Snake. Whereas the preparations for the coming festivities would in the past, traditionally encourage farmers and internal traders to release coffee for cash ahead of the festivities, the circumstances of a firm robusta market and delayed harvest due to adverse weather conditions continue to inspire slow internal release of coffee, which may continue to see commercial activity within Vietnam sluggish in the week ahead.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to remain unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 979,130 bags, with 98.28% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 962,302 bags and the remaining 1.72% being held in the USA at a total 16,828 Bags. Of this, a total 627,554 bags or 64.09% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.80% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to remain unchanged on the day, to register 34,042 bags pending grading on the day.
The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 107.65 Usc/Lb. This equates to 32.58% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar lost ground through the day, following the anticipated release of USA CPI data that came in softer than the markets expected. Speculative sentiment taking a positive turn in presumption that the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle may not be complete. The Coffee Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Sugar and Soybean markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.222 Sterling, at 1.029 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.013 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading a firmer note, with the markets trading in modest firmer territory for the remainder of the morning session before gaining support late into the morning session, whilst volumes remained muted. Both the New York and London markets-built support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day, with fresh macroeconomic news coming to the fore with softer than expected core inflation data, and the news of reduced monthly export performance to come from Brazil and the mild recovery of the Brazil Real through the day, contributing toward positive momentum. The New York market gained territory, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains through the late afternoon. The London market following suit to track higher throughout the afternoon session. The New York arabica market technical chart limit breached, although resistance and selling activity capped further upward momentum, and the New York market traded sideways in positive territory, toward the close. This market settled on a very firm note at the close. The London robusta market followed in a comparatively sedate upward track to likewise encounter resistance near to the highs of the day to drop back late in the session and settle on a firmer note at the close with over half of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 59.04% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 91.89% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer track in these markets bolstered by external macroeconomic sentiment section with both the New York and London market gaining momentum throughout the session to settle near to the highs of the day albeit in modest volumes of trade, following the Consumer Price Index CPI data announcement in the United States. One might therefore think that the markets might be pressured for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 4912 + 49 MAR 330.45 + 8.50
MAY 4856 + 60 MAY 326.05 + 8.05
JUL 4780 + 58 JUL 319.40 + 7.40
SEP 4692 + 50 SEP 311.05 + 6.70
NOV 4605 + 41 DEC 297.05 + 6.05
JAN 4528 + 41 MAR 286.75 + 5.85
MAR 4457 + 41 MAY 277.50 + 5.45
MAY 4382 + 41 JUL 267.85 + 5.10
