Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 17.60% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 14th January 2025: to register a new long position of 48,799 lots, which is the equivalent of 13,834,300 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further following the period of mixed but overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 11.44% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 14th January 2025: to register a new net long position of 18,078 Lots which is the equivalent of 3,013,000 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed overall firmer sideways trade that has since followed.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 3,235 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 982,377 bags, with 98.13% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 964,001 bags and the remaining 1.87% being held in the USA at a total 18,376 Bags. Of this, a total 630,633 bags or 64.19% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.76% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 21,141 bags on the day, to register 13,814 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 101.28 Usc/Lb. This equates to 30.85% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

Today is a national holiday in U.S.A. as the nation observes Martin Luther King Jr. Day, thus the London market will trade solo for the day.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the US Dollar modestly firmer against a basket of other currencies ahead of the USA long weekend. The USA markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Sugar, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.220 Sterling, at 1.030 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.070 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading on a modestly positive note, to gradually gain momentum during the early morning session. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build support as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York higher, triggering technical buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative short covering with the New York market gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session, albeit in modest trade volume. The New York market continued the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, with the market dropping back from the earlier highs to settle on a modest firmer note at the close, with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to settle on a firmer note at the close, maintaining more than half of the earlier gains of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 60.31% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 22.65% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This very firm close for the markets might indicate a follow through steady start to early trade today, with the London market trading solo on the day, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR    5006 + 117                                     MAR   328.35 + 1.20
MAY    4962 + 116                                     MAY    324.60 + 1.45
JUL      4881 + 106                                     JUL      318.25 + 1.70
SEP      4790 + 101                                     SEP      309.45 + 1.50
NOV    4703 + 99                                       DEC     294.95 + 1.35
JAN     4623 + 97                                       MAR    284.90 + 1.35
MAR   4545 + 97                                       MAY     275.65 + 1.25
MAY   4470 + 97                                       JUL       265.65 + 1.05