Coffee Market Report
Brazil’s government food supply and statistics agency CONAB have come forth to report that Brazilian Coffee producers are forecast to produce a total 54.21 million bags for the July 2024 to June 2025 crop year. This estimate has been revised downwards by 1.05% from their previous estimate of 54.78 million bags released in September 2024, this downward revision cited to be due to hot and dry weather experienced during the crop development phase. This revised crop estimate figure is 1.60% smaller than the previous 2023/2024 crop year. One might comment that six months into this export year, the news of smaller than anticipated Brazil 2024/2025 crop is mostly absorbed by the markets.
CONAB have maintained their projections for the 2024 arabica coffee production from their previous estimate last year, to total of 39.59 million bags, while Robusta production has been revised lower by 3.88% from their previous estimate, to now total 14.61 million bags. The CONAB forecasts are traditionally on the lower end of conservative estimates, and many would therefore anticipate this as an indication that the 2024 Brazil coffee crop might reach closer to 64.50 million bags, in line with the forecasts from several independent stakeholders. CONAB has yet to release their estimate for the coming July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year.
The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first six months of the current July 2024 to June 2025 Brazil coffee year, to be 12.83% higher overall, when compared to the same time in the previous coffee year, at a total of 23.84 million bags, made up of 18.77 million bags of arabica coffee up 8.60% from the same time last year, 5.08 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase of 27.81% versus the same time last year. It is comparatively standard that inventory retained within the country is rotationally sufficient to maintain around three months of export demand. This however, and with the 2023/24 coffee year carryover stocks put at a low 1.68 million bags, leading into July 2024 to June 2025 coffee year. Once factoring in the last six months of local absorption and prevailing export performance, it is likely that origin held carryover stocks leading into Brazil 2025/26 coffee year, will be similarly low. This so long as prevailing coffee importing country consumer demand continues to maintain a steady pace.
The northern hemisphere coffee importing consumer blocs, USA, Canada, Europe, and Japan, are in their main winter roasting season. These mature markets in terms of coffee consumption are anticipated to register steady consumption patterns, rather than register remarkable growth. Collectively, these countries account for around 92 million bags of coffee consumption per annum, or 53.50% of worldwide coffee consumption. Brazil is the leading arabica supplier to these consumer markets, exporting an average of 25 million bags or 27.50% of the total coffee per annum to this northern hemisphere consumer bloc.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 21,163 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 956,214 bags, with 98.04% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 937,518 bags and the remaining 1.96% being held in the USA at a total 18,696 Bags. Of this, a total 622,298 bags or 65.08% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.98% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to decrease by 2,315 bags on the day, to register 11,499 bags pending grading on the day.
The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported to increase by 22,833 bags, during the week leading up to the 20th January 2025, to register a total 751,000 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.
The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 89.07 Usc/Lb. This equates to 27.17% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, on the back of a weaker US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies as uncertainty surrounding potential trade tariffs from the new U.S Presidential administration loom. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.234 Sterling, at 1.042 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 6.022 Brazil Real.
The New York arabica market opened for the first trading day in the week, following Martin Luther King Federal holiday on Monday, with the political landscape altered in largest economy USA., and a cease fire in process in the Middle East. The New York and London markets started the yesterday trading to the north of par respectively, the markets continued a firmer path for the remainder of the morning session, buoyed by support in modest volume for the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets continued to attract support, the volume picking up pace as the America’s came to the floor at the opening of their business day, with a surge of buying activity and limited overhead sellers, producer selling activity removed. The London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day. As the afternoon progressed the upward momentum in New York boosted by macroeconomic sentiment on the first day of the trading week for this market, continued to set higher highs to bring selling activity back to the floor, and the buoyant mood tamped as further attempts higher met with selling activity, to see New York slip and retrace the gains, from the day’s high late in the day’s session to drop back to par and settle on a modest near to unchanged note, following a wide trading range day. The London market dropped back from the earlier highs, to settle on a very firm note at the close with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 62.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest softer note, with 44% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firmer note, the New York arabica market settled on a softer note at the close, might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 5263 + 120 MAR 327.80 – 0.55
MAY 5217 + 127 MAY 323.95 – 0.65
JUL 5136 + 131 JUL 317.70 – 0.55
SEP 4047 + 136 SEP 309.20 – 0.25
NOV 4958 + 141 DEC 295.25 + 0.30
JAN 4874 + 142 MAR 285.40 + 0.50
MAR 4796 + 142 MAY 275.80 + 0.15
MAY 4721 + 142 JUL 265.55 – 0.10
