Coffee Market Report
The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of December were 11,102 bags or 2.77% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 413,079 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered a 8.36% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 365,853 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 26.57% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 47,226 bags exported in December 2024, this decrease in Arabica exports for the month of December reported to be due to the biannual bearing nature of the Uganda Arabica coffee crop. The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first three months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 12,704 bags or 0.98% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,310,435 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of December, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 74.25% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 115.03 million US Dollars. Uganda, Africa's leading robusta producer and the fourth-largest exporter to non-producing consumer markets, is projected to maintain its coffee production levels in the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year. Estimates suggest a total output of a potential 6.50 million bags, matching the current year’s production. This comprises approximately 5.50 million bags of robusta and 1 million bags of arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 956,209 bags, with 98.04% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 937,513 bags and the remaining 1.96% being held in the USA at a total 18,696 Bags. Of this, a total 624,543 bags or 65.31% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.97% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks were seen to increase by 240 bags on the day, to register 11,739 bags pending grading on the day.
The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 94.55 Usc/Lb. This equates to 27.65% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, fuelled by a soft US Dollar and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy plans, leading to heightened speculation and market volatility. The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.232 Sterling, at 1.041 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.942 Brazil Real.
The London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest softer note before quickly gaining support to trade in positive territory, while the New York market started the day trading on a very firm note. The volume in both New York and London market remained muted for the early session with the markets gaining momentum, a void of sellers to cap the gains. As the afternoon progressed, buy stops were triggered to accentuate the gains. The markets steadily made gains, bringing fresh volume to New York to accentuate the technical day, buy stop action and speculative short covering activity saw the New York market gain ground quickly through the latter day. London followed suit to register significant gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued upward momentum, before being capped very late in the day, to see the market marginally drop back and settle on a very firm note at the close. The London market followed was also seen to settle on a very firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 92.20% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise very firm note, with 92.74% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through very firm close, while the underlying fundamentals of the prevailing tight supply may for the most part, already be absorbed by the markets, the speculative sector, macroeconomics and currency fluctuations continue to add to the volatility within the markets. To possibly see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 5452 + 189 MAR 341.85 + 14.05
MAY 5388 + 171 MAY 337.85 + 13.90
JUL 5296 + 160 JUL 331.15 + 13.45
SEP 5199 + 152 SEP 322.00 + 12.80
NOV 5109 + 151 DEC 307.75 + 12.50
JAN 5025 + 151 MAR 297.60 + 12.20
MAR 4947 + 151 MAY 287.00 + 11.20
MAY 4872 + 151 JUL 274.90 + 9.35
