Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 7,148 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 847,805 bags, with 97.55% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 827,054 bags and the remaining 2.45% being held in the USA at a total 20,751 Bags. Of this, a total 834,004 bags or 62.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.79% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted an increase by 3,560 bags on the day, to register 139,330 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 141.79 Usc/Lb. This equates to 35.64% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday. The US Dollar tracked a lower day against a basket of other currencies, and with economic data anticipated to be released through the week, while the Chinese markets opened for the first day following the extended New Year celebrations. The Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Soybean, Corn, and Wheat markets ended the day in negative territory. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.248 Sterling, at 1.039 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.804 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day yesterday in modest volume, to continue a buoyant track in early morning trade. The Brazil Real held below 5.75 and in technical day the low volume through the morning gathered pace as the USA business day began. The New York market has registered 10 successive positive sessions, and yesterday, as momentum built within technical trade a rally boosted by fund roll, spreads, and forced hedge lifts by the commercial sector, the triggered chart technical breach of 400 usc/Lb., on the prompt month led to New York reaching an all-time record high toward the close at 401.10 usc/Lb., and open interest trimmed by 2,084 Lots on the prompt month ahead of first notice day approaching on 20th February. The trend in New York continued to accentuate the technical day to the close. London followed suit to register gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued upward momentum, before being capped very late in the day, to see the market post late in the day sellers and following an active day, settled on positive note at the close. The London market followed to settle on a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 65.89% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 81.26% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The markets may be due for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR      5643 + 85                                     MAR    397.75 + 14.40
MAY      5646 + 98                                     MAY     390.65 + 13.25
JUL        5580 + 99                                     JUL       381.40 + 12.05
SEP        5488 + 97                                     SEP       370.25 + 10.65
NOV      5395 + 93                                     DEC      352.20 + 8.30
JAN       5297 + 85                                     MAR     337.90 + 6.20
MAR     5179 + 51                                     MAY      322.05 + 5.25
MAY     5032 – 32                                     JUL        304.65 + 4.55