Coffee Market Report

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 15,334 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 841,795 bags, with 97.56% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 821,319 bags and the remaining 2.44% being held in the USA at a total 20,476 Bags. Of this, a total 535,173 bags or 63.57% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.60% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a increase of 1,474 bags on the day, to register 136,688 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 167.95 Usc/Lb. This equates to 38.90% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, after the U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.5% during January, which was more than expected, reinforcing bets that the US Federal Reserve will not continue with their interest rate cutting monetary policy amidst growing uncertainty over the status of the economy. The Coffee, Corn, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.249 Sterling, at 1.044 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.765 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets opened the day on a positive note, to see the markets continue to trade in firm territory throughout the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume. The New York market fell back off the highs of the morning for a brief period during the late morning session, to trade back towards par. The London market continued to trade in positive territory, making gains throughout the session. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers returned to the floor in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way. This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed. The upward moment in New York by now an almost self-fulfilling prophecy as hedge lifting action in a market void of volume on the sell side, saw the market continue the upward momentum before being capped late in the day, to see the market settle on a firm note at the close with most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed suit to also settle on a firm note at the close, with most of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 88.17% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 94.34% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a fair volume day. With the speculative sector at the helm and technical moves in play, the markets might be in for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR      5817 + 164                                   MAR     431.80 + 18.35
MAY      5821 + 158                                   MAY      420.20 + 15.80
JUL        5765 + 154                                  JUL         407.30 + 15.15
SEP        5696 + 158                                  SEP         395.90 + 13.85
NOV      5620 + 161                                  DEC        380.75 + 12.70
JAN       5532 + 161                                  MAR       366.45 + 11.45
MAR     5442 + 161                                  MAY        349.75 + 10.10
MAY     5306 + 161                                  JUL          332.20 + 9.50