Coffee Market Report
It is the dry season in Vietnam, the fifth month of their October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, with the main coffee districts in the central highlands of Vietnam experiencing seasonally drier weather, and the rain season historically due to start during April to set the flowering for the next coffee crop to come in October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year.
The weather forecasts within Brazil indicate across the main arabica coffee growing regions are reported to be conducive in the week to come, as the country heads towards the seasonally drier winter months ahead. This factor will be closely monitored as the coming Brazil 2025/2026 crop continues to develop ahead of harvest.
The forecast from the U.S. Governments National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre has been revised and their earlier prediction to now report that La Niña weather conditions are expected to persist in the near term. They likewise forecast that there is a 66% chance that a shift from La Niña to ENSO neutral weather conditions will take place by March-May 2025. The strength and timing of these weather patterns that are related to the warming or cooling of notably the Pacific Ocean temperatures, in the event of La Niña this is a cooling phenomenon that generally brings about accentuated drier weather conditions in regions of southern continent America and excessive rainfall in equatorial areas which can impact the Pacific Rim countries.
A Reuters poll taken with twelve leading trade and market analysts has concluded that in terms of the global coffee supply factor, that this year’s 2024/2025 Brazil crop is likely to be around 66.40 million bags. The poll has indicated that for the coming Brazil July 2025 to June 2026, the next biennially bearing year in the Brazil coffee cycle, that production levels will drop by 2.70% to total 64.60 million bags.
The poll has reported that production from the coming Vietnam October 2025 to September 2026 crop year shall reach 29 million bags or 3.57% larger than the current 2024/2025 year where production is estimated at 28 million bags.
The poll concluded that the coffee markets shall soften later in the year and that it is likely that the New York market shall be trading at around 295 usc/Lb or down 32.50% from yesterdays close and the London market at around US$ 4,200.00 per Mt., or down 27.55% from yesterdays close, by the end of the year.
In other coffee news, a recent study published in the scientific journal, Nature Microbiology has shed new light on how coffee consumption influences gut health. In the largest study of its kind, DNA from over 20,000 participants, found that regular coffee drinkers had increased levels of a specific gut bacterium, Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus. This relatively understudied bacterium is known to produce butyrate, a compound linked to healthy digestion.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,140 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 849,935 bags, with 97.59% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 829,459 bags and the remaining 2.41% being held in the USA at a total 20,476 Bags. Of this, a total 546,052 bags or 64.24% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.37% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a decrease of 8,034 bags on the day, to register 128,654 bags pending grading on the day.
The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 176.09 Usc/Lb. This equates to 40.12% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, after the US unveiled plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing US imports, heightening global trade concerns. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.255 Sterling, at 1.046 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.767 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively, the markets continued a modes softer trajectory for the remainder of the early morning session, before trending in a firmer direction buoyed by support albeit in modest volumes for the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets continued to attract support, with the New York market trending firmer to hit a ceiling during the afternoon session, whilst the London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day. The New York market dropped back from the day’s highs late in the session to before finding renewed support before the close to settle on a firmer note with some of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market dropped back from the day’s highs during the late afternoon session to encounter resistance and see the market drop back through par and settle on a modest near to unchanged softer note at the close.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 31.95% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note, with 78.45% of the earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market recovering some of the earlier losses to settle on a modest softer close, and the New York market settling on a firmer note at the close, with first notice day on the prompt in New York due on the 20th February 2025, one might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 5794 – 23 MAR 438.90 + 7.10
MAY 5788 – 33 MAY 425.10 + 4.90
JUL 5740 – 25 JUL 408.20 + 0.90
SEP 5667 – 29 SEP 392.10 – 3.80
NOV 5583 – 37 DEC 373.60 – 7.15
JAN 5490 – 42 MAR 357.70 – 8.75
MAR 5400 – 42 MAY 341.05 – 8.70
MAY 5264 – 42 JUL 323.15 – 9.05
