Coffee Market Report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 10.47% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 11th February 2025: to register a new long position of 45,061 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,774,594 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of overall sideways trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 85,857 Lots or the equivalent of 24,340,079 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 7.46% on last.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease in their net long position by 8.45% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 11th February 2025; to register a new long position at 60,161 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position by 1.05% within the market, to register a new net long position of 37,465 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 3.48% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 11th February 2025: to register a new net long position of 26,648 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,441,333 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

In the latest round of independent forecast updates, a financial services business in Brazil reported that for the coming Brazil July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year, production is expected to be at a level reach 64.40 milion bags. This figure around 3.00% lower than the current July 2024 to June 2025 coffee year. The report forecasts that Arabica production will total 40.90 million bags and that Conilon Robusta will total 23.50 million bags. This overall figure slightly higher than the median average of 62.80 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 10,536 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 839,399 bags, with 97.56% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 818,923 bags and the remaining 2.44% being held in the USA at a total 20,476 Bags. Of this, a total 541,811 bags or 64.54% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.76% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted an increase of 2,655 bags on the day, to register 131,309 bags pending grading on the day.

The March 2025 to March 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 159.62 Usc/Lb. This equates to 38.03% price discount for the London robusta coffee.

Many commodity markets in the U.S.A. are closed today for the Presidents Day national holiday, which will see the London Robusta Coffee market trading solo for the day.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, as investors continue to take caution after the US unveiled plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing US imports. The Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.260 Sterling, at 1.049 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.704 Brazil Real.

The New York and London markets started the day on Friday trading to the south of par in modest softer territory. The early morning session posted a lower track in thin volume and the market responded with light liquidation in both New York and London, to trade in negative territory to set a new lower range. As the afternoon progressed, the markets lacking upward momentum, technical liquidation entered to see speculative sellers return in volume to the floor to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed suit, and the markets continued to track lower with a large degree of speculative long liquidation to accentuate the losses for the day’s trade. As the day progressed to the close selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, to see the London market narrowly recover some of the earlier losses of the day, while the New York market was also seen to recover off of the lows of the day during the late afternoon session to settle on a softer note at the close ahead of first notice day on the prompt month due on Thursday this week, with open interest registered at 20,026 Lots.

The London market ended the day on a negative note with 62.10% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note, with 70.28% of the earlier losses of the day intact. he New York market is closed today for the U.S.A. Presidents Day holiday, which is observed in not all but many of the States and shall leave the London market trading solo for the day. One might think that this shall slow trade within the London market for the day, and one might think the market is due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                 NEW YORK USC/LB.

MAR   5735 – 59                                          MAR   419.75 – 19.15
MAY   5726 – 62                                          MAY   407.40 – 17.70
JUL     5674 – 66                                          JUL     393.40 – 14.80
SEP     5599 – 68                                          SEP     379.80 – 12.30
NOV   5501 – 82                                          DEC    364.00 – 9.60
JAN    5397 – 93                                           MAR  350.95 – 6.75
MAR  5295 – 105                                         MAY   336.25 – 4.80
MAY  5187 – 77                                           JUL     320.00 – 3.15