Coffee Market Report
The largest quality washed arabica producer, Colombia that has two harvests per year, will start their mitaca harvest in a few months’ time. Colombia’s total crop production for the October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, is forecast to reach around 13 million bags or 3.95% higher than the previous coffee year. This forecast, although improved year on year, is still shy of the country’s average potential production that is put at around 13.15 million bags per seasonal year. It is estimated that the country should be able to export approximately 11.20 million bags in the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year, an improvement of 9.96% year on year. The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first four months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 1,636,000 bags or 35.42% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,254,000 bags. The country’s cumulative coffee exports for first four months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year look to bring forth a positive performance, registered at 662,000 bags or 16.52% improvement on the same period in the previous coffee year, to a total of 4,669,000 bags
Trade within the washed arabica producer bloc of Central America is reported to be continuing at a good pace with indications that the coffee crops harvested over the first four to five months of this October 2024 to September 2025 coffee export year, are flowing to consumer markets. Honduras is the largest of this regional quality washed arabica producer and exporting region that is made up of Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador.
The exclusively arabica coffee crop from Honduras for the October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year is forecast to reach an overall 5 million bags, or 7.50% higher than the previous coffee year. Of this current crop, the forecast is that Honduras will export 4.75 million bags. There have been reports throughout Central America of unseasonally wet weather at the outset of the crop development, due to tropical storm Sara bringing with it a continuation of wet weather leading to seasonally slower deliveries within the interior. The weather has since improved as coffee flows from the interior.
The coffee flow from smaller coffee producer nations in Central American countries is seen to be similarly continuing with little disruptions, with exports from these countries, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua reporting similar year on year exports over the same period in the previous coffee year. Further to the south, the next new crop harvest may be expected to start in a couple of months’ time, in Peru, where the forecasts for the coming April 2025 to March 2026 coffee crop year will soon start to come to the fore. The current April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year that is nearing its end is forecast to reach 3.60 million bags or 12.20% decrease in production on that of the previous year.
As the week continues, it is first notice day in the prompt month in New York tomorrow, with 14,573 lots open interest to be resolved. First notice day for the London prompt month is due next week on the 25th February with 8,958 lots open interest.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 66,269 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 758,514 bags, with 97.36% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 738,514 bags and the remaining 2.64% being held in the USA at a total 20,476 Bags. Of this, a total 472,168 bags or 62.25% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.77% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted an increase of 5,107 bags on the day, to register 136,416 bags pending grading on the day.
The Certified robusta coffee stocks held against the London Exchange reported to decrease by 9,000 bags, during the week leading up to the 18th February 2025, to register a total 716,167 bags being held in northern hemisphere consumer country warehouses.
The May 2025 to May 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 146.20 Usc/Lb. This equates to 36.08% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as investors keep a close watch on the US trade tariff strategies with global trade concerns increasing. The minutes from the January US Federal Reserve are due to be released this week. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.261 Sterling, at 1.045 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.689 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively, the markets continued a modes softer trajectory for the remainder of the early morning session, to see the New York market set a new low during the morning session, weighed by a large degree of selling pressure in the market. As the afternoon progressed, the markets reversed the early trend to recover some of the earlier losses and trend back towards par. The London market traded through par to set a firmer range for the afternoon session. The New York market found support during the late afternoon session, recovering most of the earlier losses to settle on a modest softer note at the close, within a day of large trade volumes with open interest in the prompt month registered at 14,573 lots ahead of first notice day due tomorrow in New York. The London market recovered all of the losses to gain support late in the day and settle on a firmer note with most of the earlier gains of the day intact at the close.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 83.67% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note, with 13.40% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling near to the highs of the day and the New York market recovering most of the earlier losses of the day to settle on a modest softer note ahead of first notice day on the prompt in New York due in one days’ time on the 20th February 2025, one might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAR 5738 + 40 MAR 419.00 – 0.75
MAY 5721 + 41 MAY 405.25 – 2.15
JUL 5678 + 44 JUL 390.30 – 3.10
SEP 5609 + 47 SEP 376.80 – 3.00
NOV 5511 + 42 DEC 361.50 – 2.50
JAN 5408 + 42 MAR 349.15 – 1.80
MAR 5308 + 44 MAY 334.70 – 1.55
MAY 5211 + 55 JUL 318.45 – 1.55
