Coffee Market Report
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 4.40% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 18th February 2025: to register a new long position of 43,123 lots, which is the equivalent of 12,225,179 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further following the period of overall softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 84,256 Lots or the equivalent of 23,886,203 bags net short position on the day, a decrease of 1.86% on last.
In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund decrease in their net long position by 2.46% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 18th February 2025; to register a new long position at 59,602 Lots. The longer term in nature, Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position by 2.26% within the market, to register a new net long position of 38,312 Lots on the day.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 9.21% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 18th February 2025: to register a new net long position of 29,104 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,850,667 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased following the period of overall softer trade that has since followed.
The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of January were 69,405 bags or 14.43% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 550,341 bags. Uganda Robusta exports registered an 20.64% increase when compared to the same month last year, to total 485,999 bags and Arabica exports registered a comparative 17.60% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 64,342 bags exported in January 2025, this decrease in Arabica exports for the month of January reported to be due to the biannual bearing nature of the Uganda Arabica coffee crop. The UCDA also reports that the cumulative exports for the first four months of the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year to be 82,109 bags or 4.61% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,860,776 bags. The UCDA have reported that during the month of January, the overall value of coffee exports has been seen to have increased by 83.38% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 156.49 million US Dollars. Uganda, Africa's leading robusta producer and the fourth-largest exporter to non-producing consumer markets, with the harvest on track, is projected to maintain its coffee production levels in the current October 2024 to September 2025 coffee year. Estimates suggest a total output of a potential 6.50 million bags, matching the current year’s production. This comprises approximately 5.50 million bags of robusta and 1 million bags of arabica coffee.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 8,936 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 787,999 bags, with 97.40% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 767,523 bags and the remaining 2.60% being held in the USA at a total 20,476 Bags. Of this, a total 505,562 bags or 64.16% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 10.36% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a decrease of 1,411 bags on the day, to register 113,331 bags pending grading on the day.
The May 2025 to May 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday, to register this at 129.93 Usc/Lb. This equates to 33.38% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was a softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, with the focus on US Federal Reserve Interest rate clues, given that the current policies are viewed to be inflationary, which could see the monetary policy maintain high interest rates in an effort to curb an inflationary environment. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.267 Sterling, at 1.051 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.729 Brazil Real.
The New York arabica market started the day on Friday trading to the north of par on a modest firmer note, whilst the London market started the day trading on a softer path. The markets quickly gained support to set a firmer path for the remainder of the morning session, buoyed by support in modest volume for the morning session. As the afternoon progressed, the markets continued to attract support, the volume picking up pace as the America’s came to the floor at the opening of their business day, with a surge of buying activity and limited overhead sellers, producer selling activity removed. The London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day. As the afternoon progressed the upward momentum in New York was faltered, bringing selling activity back to the floor, and the buoyant mood tamped as further attempts higher met with selling activity, to see New York slip and retrace the gains, from the day’s high late in the day’s session to drop back to par and settle on a modest near to unchanged note, following a wide trading range day. The London market dropped back from the earlier highs, to settle on a very firm note at the close with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact.
The London market ended the day on a positive note with 78.48% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a modest negative note, with 10.74% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firmer note ahead of first notice day due tomorrow 25th February 2025 and the New York arabica market settling on a softer note at the close, might see the markets set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAY 5717 + 62 MAY 389.25 – 0.65
JUL 5670 + 60 JUL 378.90 – 0.65
SEP 5605 + 59 SEP 368.00 – 0.05
NOV 5506 + 56 DEC 354.95 + 1.40
JAN 5399 + 50 MAR 344.65 + 2.15
MAR 5301 + 45 MAY 332.25 + 2.85
MAY 5212 + 45 JUL 317.05 + 2.90
JUL 5133 + 45 SEP 301.30 + 2.45
