Coffee Market Report
Coffee Market Report
July 04 2014
The weather conditions in Brazil have remained conducive for the progress of the arabica coffee harvest in the South and Central coffee districts of the country, with this arabica coffee harvest now estimated to be 50% completed. It is however early days still to assess the yields from this harvest as it is only once the coffees have been hulled and graded, that the reality of the yields can be calculated and therefore the speculation over the size of this new arabica crop continues.
Meanwhile the northern conilon robusta coffee crop is just about completed with many private industry players speculating that this new crop is over 9% larger than last year’s crop, at close to 17.3 million bags. This increase in the size of the conilon crop tending to reduce the fears of a lower arabica coffee crop in terms of the large Brazil domestic coffee market, as these price competitive coffees are likely to increase their market share within this market and thus, release more of the smaller arabica coffee crop for export.
The internal market in Brazil for new crop coffees is lacklustre at present, with most exporters already well covered for their nearby forward sale commitments with a combination of past crop stocks and new crop coffees. While with the World Cup now starting to get to the business end of the tournament and Brazil still in the game, there is a definite distraction within the country from normal business activities. Thus it is convenient that with Brazil due for a critical quarter final match against Colombia today, that there shall be no reference prices from the New York market that is on its Independence Day long weekend to allow coffee offices to close early for the day.
The new Peru fine washed arabica crop is coming in presently, but with many conflicting forecasts on the size of this crop, while with uncertainty as to the potential it is tending to mute exporter trading activity from the country which alike the Central Americans, has been suffering from Roya or Leaf Rust. These problems are however regional and tend to be related mostly to the lower grown coffee farms and therefore, there remains uncertainty as to the size of this crop which has been forecasted at around 4.2 million bags. Contrary to a government forecast in May that was indicating a new crop that would be larger than the previous year’s crop, which they had estimated to have been in excess of 4.3 million bags.
It has been a steady year in terms of coffee exports from India so far, but with the past couple of months of lower international prices tending to fuel some degree of price resistance that has slowed export selling activity. Nevertheless the coffee exports from India for the first six months of this year are reported to be still only 2.6% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 3,042,550 bags. However the value of these exports has been reported to be 6.18% lower than the same period last year, at a value of 486.4 million U.S. dollars.
The coffee trading activity in Vietnam and Indonesia has been slow this week, with the inverted nature of the price structure in the London market tending to dampen trade house buying activity, while some degree of price resistance on the part of the internal market players is likewise impacting upon selling aggression. This slow selling activity is further influenced within Indonesia, where many internal market players are distracted by the onset of the Ramadan month of fasting which started last weekend and shall carry on through to near to the end of July.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 78.00 usc/Lb., while this still equates to a very attractive 45.4% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,345 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,493,307 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 8,251 bags.
The commodity markets remained mixed in trade yesterday, but with some degree of confidence continuing in line with the news of improved employment data from the U.S.A. While there was a tailing off in interest, ahead of today’s Independence Day close for the markets. The Natural Gas, London robusta Coffee, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Platinum and Palladium markets showed buoyancy, while the Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, New York arabica Coffee, Cotton, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.10% lower; to see this Index registered at 545.97. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.717 to Sterling and 1.360 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is tending softer in early trade and is selling at $ 109.30 per barrel.
The coffee markets opened the day yesterday with both the London and New York markets showing buoyancy in thin and lacklustre trade, which remained the track into the afternoon’s trade. The New York market did however start to falter as the afternoon progressed, while the London market maintained its positive stance. The London market continued to end the day on a positive note and with 55.3% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market didn’t manage to recover from the late in the day reversal of fortunes and ended the day on a soft note and with 90.9% of the losses of the day intact. The New York market is closed today to leave the London market to trade solo for the day, which is likely to result in thin and lacklustre steady to soft trade against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 2065 + 18 JUL 169.40 – 1.65
SEP 2068 + 21 SEP 171.80 – 1.50
NOV 2051 + 16 DEC 175.45 – 1.50
JAN 2044 + 15 MAR 178.70 – 1.50
MAR 2040 + 12 MAY 180.50 – 1.55
MAY 2045 + 10 JUL 181.70 – 1.60
JUL 2054 + 10 SEP 182.00 – 1.65
SEP 2063 + 11 DEC 182.15 – 1.55
NOV 2072 + 12 MAR 182.20 – 1.45
JAN 2076 + 12 MAY 182.00 – 1.45
Coffee Market Report
July 03 2014
The National Coffee Organisation of Guatemala have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of June were 95,918 bags or 22.65% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 327,537 bags. This higher volume has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year having been 349,661 bags or 12.81% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 2,380,409 bags.
The National Coffee Federation of Colombia have reported that the countries coffee production for the month of June was 31,000 bags or 3.4% higher than the same month last year, to total 944,000 bags. While the countries coffee exports for the month were 79,000 bags or 11.74% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 752,000 bags.
This improved performance and following many improved months has contributed to the Colombian cumulative production for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year being 1,563,400 bags or 21.52% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,829,400 bags. Likewise the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present coffee year are 1,859,000 bags or 28.99% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,271,000 bags.
Based on the previous year’s performance and with Colombian production steadily rising, one might guess that the last three months of the present coffee year shall produce at least 2.7 million bags and therefore, see Colombia produce approximately 11.5 million bags during the present coffee year. Therefore to fuel exports of approximately 10.5 million bags, for the present coffee year. This much improved performance from Colombia assisting to counter much of the negative effects of the dip in Mexican and Central American production and the corresponding exports into the supply chain of fine washed arabica coffees, for the present coffee year.
Meanwhile with the Mexicans and Central Americans forecasted to bring in at least a 10% increase in crop from their next October 2014 to March 2015 harvest and adding in excess of 1.5 million bags to the fine washed arabica coffee supply while Colombia is expected to register a further small increase in crop, the supply of the top end mild coffees to the consumer markets is seemingly secure for the coming coffee year. This good supply factor is especially so, as there is flat growth within the traditional developed coffee markets for the present, which are the higher value markets that are related to these relatively expensive quality coffees. Making note that the impressive growth in single serves capsule coffees is very much related to the traditional developed coffee markets, which is resulting in less coffee fuelling more cups.
The Indian monsoon season for the country’s main coffee districts remains below par, with rainfall for many farms being reported at 20% below the monthly average for the month of June. It is however noted that the months of July and August are traditionally the heaviest rainfall months and so far even though it has been a drier than normal June there have been rains and therefore, it is too early to foresee the relatively mild monsoon season as being threatening to the forthcoming year end new coffee crop. Albeit that there are already many market manipulative scare stories emanating from the coffee farmers in India, as they look to resist the softer prices that are presently being dictated by the reference prices of the international coffee markets.
The arbitrage between the markets broadened yesterday to register this at 80.45 usc/Lb., while this still equates to a very attractive 46.42% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 320 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,497,652 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 8,251 bags.
The commodity markets remained mixed in trade yesterday, but with some degree of confidence in play with the support of reasonable economic figures that are related to slow but steady growth from the U.S.A. The Coffee, Sugar, Copper, Orange Juice, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets showed buoyancy, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, Cotton, Corn and Soybean markets tended easier for the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.01% lower; to see this Index registered at 546.50. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.715 to Sterling and 1.365 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is tending softer in early trade and is selling at $ 109.50 per barrel.
The coffee markets opened the day yesterday with the London market near to steady and the New York market experiencing some modest corrective buoyancy, following the previous day’s soft close. The London market did however soon recover and return to positive territory, while the New York market shrugged off a short dip back to par, to recover its earlier gains of the day. The London market continued on a positive sideways track for the rest of the day and to end the day with 63.3% of the gains of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a positive note and with 70.1% of the earlier gains of the day intact. The markets shall be conscious of the fact that the more volatile New York market is on holiday tomorrow for Independence Day in the U.S.A. and one would think that they shall be due for a follow through steady start for early trade today against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 2047 + 40 JUL 171.05 + 2.75
SEP 2047 + 31 SEP 173.30 + 2.35
NOV 2035 + 23 DEC 176.95 + 2.40
JAN 2029 + 20 MAR 180.20 + 2.40
MAR 2028 + 20 MAY 182.05 + 2.35
MAY 2035 + 19 JUL 183.30 + 2.55
JUL 2044 + 20 SEP 183.65 + 2.70
SEP 2052 + 20 DEC 183.70 + 2.50
NOV 2060 + 20 MAR 183.65 + 2.50
JAN 2064 + 20 MAY 183.45 + 2.70
Coffee Market Report
July 02 2014
The National Coffee Institute of Honduras have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of June were 72,516 bags or 16% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 525,631 bags. This higher volume has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year having been 277,883 bags or 7.1% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 3,637,280 bags.
The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of June were 16,684 bags or 11.31% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 164,257 bags. This higher volume follows a slow start but nevertheless now contributes to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year having been 123,614 bags or 10.59% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,043,452 bags.
The preliminary coffee export figures from Brazil for the month of June have indicated that the countries green coffee exports for the month were 540,000 bags or 25.96% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 2.69 million bags. This rise in volume having been very much expected, as the positive nature of the reference prices of the New York market and the resulting firm prices of the washed arabica coffees, has influenced rising demand for the more affordable natural arabica coffees from Brazil, where farmers have remained active sellers of their significant 2013 crop stocks.
The preliminary June exports of mostly robusta coffees from Vietnam have been announced to have been 1,816,667 bags and at a value of US$ 229,000,000, while this contributes to the countries coffee exports for the first six months of the present calendar year being 31.7% higher in volume and 24.7% in value than the same period last year. The income from coffee exports from Vietnam for the first six months of this year being calculated at an impressive 2.12 billion U.S. dollars.
The International Coffee Organisation have reported that global coffee exports for the month of May were 5.6% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 9.62 million bags. This lower figure contributes to the official ICO exports for the first eight months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year being 3.9% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 72.83 million bags. This dip in exports is however of no real concern, as it is more related to the restrained export selling over the period by many price resistant producers who had been speculating upon a Brazil partial drought inspired firmer international market.
In the meantime and with a full moon due at the end of next week that is a period that is usually accompanied by clear nights and therefore, making any accompanying cold weather harsher, there remains the modest threat of frost in the coffee districts in Brazil. This factor might assist to dampen any speculative bearish spirits for the coming days, which shall also be interrupted by the Independence Day holiday for the USA and the New York market on Friday. Thus we would think that the markets shall be able to attract some degree of support and a degree of buoyancy, following the past few days of reversal of fortunes for the more volatile New York market. This aside from the marginally stronger Brazil Real that is likely to restrain selling activity and the resulting price fixation hedge selling into the markets, from this leading player.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 79.51 usc/Lb., while this still equates to a very attractive 46.15% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 170 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,497,972 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 3,923 bags decline in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 8,251 bags.
The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, but with most markets somewhat lacklustre in their trading activity in line with the holiday season that is now coming into play. The Orange Juice, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets were firmer in line with a soft U.S. dollar and the London robusta Coffee market was steady, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, New York arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn and Soybean markets tended softer for the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.34% higher; to see this Index registered at 546.58. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.715 to Sterling and 1.367 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is tending softer in early trade and is selling at $ 110.85 per barrel.
The coffee markets opened the day yesterday with the London market showing some early buoyancy, while the New York market started to come under some early negative pressure. The London market continued to show its muscle into the afternoon’s trade, but with the New York market continuing to struggle the London market shed its earlier gains. The London market continued to end the day on a steady note, while the New York market ended the day on a soft note and with 80.6% of the losses of the day intact. This was not an very inspired close but one might think that there might nevertheless be some degree of stability for the markets to steady trade within the London market and bring forth some modest corrective recovery for the New York market against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 2007 + 9 JUL 168.30 – 4.70
SEP 2016 unch SEP 170.95 – 4.15
NOV 2012 unch DEC 174.55 – 4.15
JAN 2009 – 3 MAR 177.80 – 4.10
MAR 2008 – 7 MAY 179.90 – 4.05
MAY 2016 – 7 JUL 180.75 – 4.00
JUL 2024 – 9 SEP 180.95 – 3.95
SEP 2032 – 10 DEC 181.20 – 4.00
NOV 2040 – 10 MAR 181.15 – 3.90
JAN 2044 – 10 MAY 180.75 – 3.95
Coffee Market Report
July 01 2014
1st July, 2014.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within this market by 6.08% in the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th June, to register a net long position of 23,831 Lots on the day. This speculative net long position within the London market is the equivalent of 3,971,833 bags and will most likely have been marginally reduced following the latter days of softer trade.
With the month of June passed the Government Trade data from Sumatra as the main coffee growing island of Indonesia has reported that the islands Robusta coffee exports for the month of May were 79,172 bags or 40.78% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 114,960 bags. This lower performance contributes to the islands cumulative robusta coffee exports from Sumatra for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year at a total of 2,791,681 bags.
8The arbitrage between the markets widened yesterday to register at 83.66 USc/Lb., this equates to an attractive 47.78% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 10,059 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,498,142 bags. The pending grading stocks posted an increase of 4,158 bags increase in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 12,174 bags on the day.
It was a mixed and generally softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the Oil markets continued to register a slide as summer time inventories in the leading northern hemisphere consumer markets remain positive and concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from Iraq continued to wane. It was a similarly softer day for Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice and the grains, Wheat, Corn, Soybean were all lower on the day. It was a more positive day for Copper, Gold, Platinum and Palladium with Silver fairly flat on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.88% lower; to see this Index registered at 544.74. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.709 to Sterling and 1.367 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is softer in early trade and is selling at US$ 110.90 per barrel.
It was a choppy day in the coffee markets yesterday which started with a negative follow through in London and a positive start to the day in New York to set the tone for the morning session and in limited volume. The New York market could not however maintain the gains posted at the outset and slowly this market flattened out and back to opening levels. Light trade on either side of unchanged was maintained while London remained fairly buoyant albeit in negative territory, until the America’s opened for business whereupon speculative pressure came to the fore in New York to push this market lower and trigger stops along the way. There was a similar move in London robusta where the volume slipped through technical levels in a rapid succession and at one point 2.13% below opening levels. The afternoon session and the lower levels tested attracted improved interest and both markets found buyer support to lift the floor, with London still in negative territory having clawed back the earlier losses and a close near to the middle of the days’ trading range, and a recovery in New York to register a 3% recovery from the lows of the day and finish in a positive range and at the days’ highs, to set the close yesterday in both markets, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1998 – 28 JUL 173.00 + 2.55
SEP 2016 – 18 SEP 175.10 + 2.55
NOV 2012 – 18 DEC 178.70 + 2.55
JAN 2012 – 16 MAR 181.90 + 2.65
MAR 2015 – 14 MAY 183.75 + 2.65
MAY 2023 – 14 JUL 184.75 + 2.80
JUL 2033 – 14 SEP 184.90 + 2.85
SEP 2042 – 14 DEC 185.20 + 3.15
NOV 2050 – 14 MAR 185.05 + 3.15
JAN 2054 – 14 MAY 184.70 + 3.15
Coffee Market Report
June 30 2014
30th June, 2014.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the washed arabica coffee New York market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund sector of the market increase their net long position within this market by 0.97% in the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 24th June; to register a net long position of 39,702 Lots on the day. Over the same period the longer term in nature and steadier Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 1.05%, to register a net long on the day of 45,058 Lots.
During this same week of trade the Non Commercial Speculative sector of the market increased their net long position within the market by 3.62% to register a net long position of 27,631 Lots on the day. This speculative net long position within the New York market which is the equivalent of 7,833,389 bags has most likely been modestly decreased following the latter end week softer trade, which followed.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed on Friday to register at 80.29 USc/Lb., this equates to an attractive 46.53% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 14,125 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 2,508,201 bags. The pending grading stocks posted an increase of 604 bags increase in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 8,016 bags on the day.
It was a mixed and generally softer day on the commodity markets on Friday, lead by the overall softer sentiment in the Oil markets and volatility in the grains sector ahead of crop report forecasts anticipated to be released later today. It was a softer day for Sugar, Coffee, Soybean, Corn and a steady day for Gold and Platinum, while Wheat and Cocoa were higher on the day, as was it a better day for Silver and Palladium. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.22% lower; to see this Index registered at 549.59. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.702 to Sterling and 1.364 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is softer in early trade and is selling at US$ 112.16 per barrel.
The London and New York markets both started the day with a degree of buoyancy on Friday, within a modest volume environment. Both markets set a positive track in the morning and London registering progressive upward momentum and in the absence of producer seller participation in any volume. New York held steady and in a somewhat narrow range above the market opening for much of the day. A general softer mood within the macro however and with the coffee markets seemingly devoid of directional inspiration saw the speculative sector of the market return to the floor later in the day as sellers, with sell stops entering the fray to trigger the market lower along the way and New York finished the day on a softer note just off of the days’ lows. The London market which had shown signs of resistance to the general negativity however the gains of the session were rapidly eroded as the trading day drew to a close to see this market finish in still positive territory in the front months but nearer to the day lows, to set the close on Friday on a softer note as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 2026 + 18 JUL 170.45 – 8.35
SEP 2034 + 7 SEP 172.55 – 8.30
NOV 2030 + 1 DEC 176.05 – 8.30
JAN 2028 – 2 MAR 179.25 – 8.15
MAR 2029 – 5 MAY 181.10 – 8.10
MAY 2037 – 7 JUL 181.95 – 8.00
JUL 2047 – 7 SEP 182.05 – 7.80
SEP 2056 – 7 DEC 182.05 – 7.80
NOV 2064 – 7 MAR 181.90 – 7.70
JAN 2068 – 7 MAY 181.50 – 7.70
Coffee Market Report
June 27 2014
27th June, 2014.
The Vietnam General Statistics Office have revised the countries coffee exports of mostly robusta coffees for the month of May to 2,290,000 bags and not 2,833,333 bags as reported last month. The Office has also subsequently reported that the countries estimated coffee exports for the month of June to have been 1,833,333 bags or 22.40% more than the same month a year ago. This figure would indicate that the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year are 11.60% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 22 million bags.
The new northern Conilon robusta crop in Brazil is approximately 80% completed, while the central and southern arabica coffee crop is building up in volume and can be expected to start to peak in the coming month of July. This latter Brazil arabica harvest has experienced seasonally suitable dry weather and with the next full moon due on 12th July, which is historically viewed as the most likely month for frost events, there is little in the weather forecasts to indicate any likelihood of this occurring and this has in recent years as coffee farming has moved away from traditional frost affected areas, become a non-event.
Following the host of Brazil new crop forecasts and with many looking to a figure close to 50 million bags and some even in excess of 50 million bags, the National Coffee Council in Brazil is maintaining their forecast at this stage for a coffee crop to be between 40.1 million bags and 43.3 million bags. This with the announcement after the market close yesterday, that cumulative reports would indicate that the new Brazil crop to include Conilon robusta which begins harvest earlier in the year and the arabica harvest currently underway, to be between 35% to 40% complete at this time.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register at 88.90 USc/Lb., this equates to a very attractive 49.16% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 792 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,522,326 bags. There was a 2,275 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 7,412 bags on the day.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange were seen to increase by 111,333 bags or 10.05% over the two weeks of trade leading up to Monday 23rd June, to register these stocks at 1,106,833 bags.
It was a mixed and generally softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, the U.S. Dollar slipped back against a basket of major currencies, inspired by general discussion of a possible interest rate hike in first quarter 2015 within the leading USA consumer market. In the commodity sector it was a softer day for Oil as concerns over possible disruptions to exports from Iraq faded. It was a positive day for Sugar, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and a softer day for Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Orange Juice, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.33% lower; to see this Index registered at 550.81. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.703 to Sterling and 1.36 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is softer in early trade and is selling at $ 112.42 per barrel.
Both the London and New York markets started the day on a hesitantly steady note yesterday, but with both markets soon coming under some negative pressure in thin trade. There was however a positive correction that came into play for both markets as the morning progressed. The London market maintained its firmer track while the correction in New York was short lived and with some speculative profit taking within the limited volume environment. The London market continued to end the day in positive territory and close to the days highs on the close, whereas New York remained range bound in negative territory for the latter half of the day, with speculative support lifting this market toward the end of the session. The London market has two sessions left to first notice day, which might indicate a continuation of the steady trend with limited producer selling overhead. The New York market is currently lacking directional news and therefore inspiration for the speculative sector, although there remains the underlying longer term speculative confidence that comes with the prospects of a smaller Brazil crop. The Brazil Real is firmer today and currently trading at 2.196 to the U.S. Dollar and could serve to discourage active producer participation from this sector of the market for the short term. Thus, with some volatility still in play, the markets set the close yesterday on a mildly buoyant note, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 2008 + 14 JUL 178.80 – 1.15
SEP 2027 + 11 SEP 180.85 – 1.20
NOV 2029 + 5 DEC 184.35 – 1.25
JAN 2030 + Unch MAR 187.40 – 1.30
MAR 2034 – 1 MAY 189.20 – 1.35
MAY 2044 – 1 JUL 189.95 – 1.40
JUL 2054 – 1 SEP 189.85 – 1.60
SEP 2063 – 1 DEC 189.85 – 1.45
NOV 2071 – 1 MAR 189.60 – 1.45
JAN 2075 – 1 MAY 189.20 – 1.50
Coffee Market Report
June 26 2014
26th June, 2014.
All eyes remain focused on Brazil and not only for the World Cup which is drawing the attention of the fans all around the globe. With the new crop harvest underway, attention within the coffee community remains drawn to the question of potential size of the crop that is starting to coming in and the extent of damage that may have been incurred to the forming beans within the ripening cherries, during the extraordinary climatic anomaly of excessive dry weather experienced from January through to March in the growing areas this year.
In this respect, reports from the interior can be expected to continue to draw the focus of the speculative sector within the coffee markets and so too the industry at large. Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe came forth yesterday with their latest report that their members have thus far harvested 1.78 million bags of coffee by 20 June, or 27.50% of their estimated crop thus far, which was for this crop underway was put at an estimated 10 million bags from its areas at the beginning of this year and ahead of the drought.
The harvest is by comparative terms, advanced on that of the previous year which yielded a higher biennial bearing crop and reported at 13.60% coffee that had been collected by the same time in that year. There was no reason provided for the higher intake at this point in the year, however the cherries related to early flowering would most likely be the most vulnerable to the hot and dry weather in January and February and likewise, earlier ripening, providing for an earlier harvest of ripe cherries in these areas. While there is perhaps the additional incentive in that prevailing market levels are more conducive to facilitate willing producers to release new crop coffees earlier on in the season than would otherwise traditionally be a factor at this stage of the harvest. It is however early days for this current crop and with a few months ahead for this harvest, it remains very difficult to gauge conclusions at this early stage.
The arbitrage between the markets widened yesterday to register at 90.60 usc/Lb., this equates to a very attractive 49.77% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 275 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,523,118 bags. There was a 1,925 bags increase in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 9,687 bags on the day.
It was a mixed day in the commodity markets yesterday, the influential Oil markets losing ground during the session on weaker than expected consumption data filtered into the markets in the U.S., while Brent Crude slipped back as concerns regarding the sectarian violence in Iraq, and the potential to affect exports from this country faded. Thus a mixed day and Light Crude positive while Brent lower, it was similarly a lower finish on the day for Sugar, Cotton, Orange Juice, Corn and the metals markets, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. Copper continued its positive run, Coffee finished positively and a recovery for Wheat, and Soybeans. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.05% higher; to see this Index registered at 552.624. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.699 to Sterling and 1.363 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 113.46 per barrel. It was a quiet start to the day in the coffee markets yesterday, with London in positive territory and New York starting the day on a softer note. The morning progressed within limited volume and a narrow range and in London with three trading sessions ahead of first notice day for the prompt month. The New York market registered a recovery which continued in thin afternoon trade into the afternoon session with stops triggered along the way to feed the upward momentum. A lack of producer participation was evident and with the Brazil Real registering at a firmer 2.20 to the US Dollar during the course of the day, a limited volume of selling at the top at the top of the market toward the latter half of the day. The speculative buying support in New York market met with light resistance as the day progressed toward the close. It was a similarly firm day in London which continued to hold on to its buoyancy throughout the session and a close in both markets near to the days’ high to set the close yesterday, as follows;
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1994 + 40 JUL 179.95 + 5.80
SEP 2016 + 44 SEP 182.05 + 5.80
NOV 2024 + 44 DEC 185.60 + 5.80
JAN 2030 + 45 MAR 188.70 + 5.80
MAR 2035 + 44 MAY 190.55 + 5.85
MAY 2045 + 45 JUL 191.35 + 5.85
JUL 2055 + 45 SEP 191.45 + 5.90
SEP 2064 + 45 DEC 191.30 + 5.90
NOV 2072 + 45 MAR 191.05 + 5.90
JAN 2076 + 45 MAY 190.70 + 5.90
Coffee Market Report
June 25 2014
25th June, 2014.
The weather in Brazil remains conducive as the peak harvest is underway for the new coffee crop for which the size of the crop and extent of the earlier drought damage remains largely under debate with many forecasts in play and some ranging as far apart as a difference of 10 million bags from lowest to highest estimate.
The weather has likewise remained conducive to the developing new crops in Central America and on the shorter term Weather Services International has maintained their forecast for a relatively tame hurricane season for the Gulf of Mexico for the second half of this year. This while weather forecasters continue to monitor the likelihood of an El Niño weather phenomenon that could occur later this year, which has shown signs of warming in the Pacific albeit weak and the question of whether this may yet develop is not yet known. For the moment however weather forecasts are positive and this removes short to medium term weather fears for Central and South America and for Indonesia and Vietnam off the table for the present.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed marginally yesterday to register at 86.80 usc/Lb., this equates to a very attractive 49.25% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 4,710 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,523,393 bags. There was a 5,100 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 7,762 bags on the day.
It was an overall easier day on the commodity markets yesterday and renewed confidence in the U.S. manufacturing sector reported yesterday assisted a firmer U.S. Dollar on the day. It was a positive day for the Oil markets and Copper continued a positive run, as was it a positive day for metals, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium all in positive territory. It was however a softer day for the agriculture sector in general terms with Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn and Soybean all posted lower results on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.54% lower; to see this Index registered at 552.343. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar firmer trading at 1.695 to Sterling and 1.36 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is buoyant in early trade and is selling at $ 114.16 per barrel. The coffee markets started the day in a positive range in London and slightly softer in New York. Volumes were very light however and particularly in New York the quiet morning progressed within a narrow range below opening levels with London in marginally positive territory. The muted trend seemed to settle in for the day with both markets hardly changed toward the midmorning and very limited activity in New York up to the point when the America’s opened for their business day. The earlier listless trade in New York met with a bout of strong speculative selling pressure and with little underlying support the market broke lower, triggering stops along the way. The lows tested met with some resistance and buyer fixation support returned to prop up and level off the market, to steady once more.
It was a somewhat less dramatic performance in London yesterday however, which maintained a positive stance for much of the day’s trade. Finally in the wake of the rapidly weaker New York market, London met with only tapered selling pressure to see this market shed some of the earlier gains. London did not follow New York however and instead maintained a modestly negative but steady range for the most part of the afternoon, to settle above the day lows. Once the volatile speculative losses had been absorbed in New York, the latter day attracted speculative and buyer fixation support back to the floor, to see New York recover much of the ground lost during the day, to see the markets close in negative territory on a buoyant note, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1954 – 13 JUL 174.15 – 0.95
SEP 1972 – 10 SEP 176.25 – 1.15
NOV 1980 – 7 DEC 179.80 – 1.20
JAN 1985 – 7 MAR 182.90 – 1.20
MAR 1991 – 6 MAY 184.70 – 1.10
MAY 2000 – 7 JUL 185.50 – 1.10
JUL 2010 – 7 SEP 185.55 – 1.10
SEP 2019 – 7 DEC 185.40 – 1.05
NOV 2027 – 7 MAR 185.00 – 1.10
JAN 2031 – 7 MAY 184.65 – 1.10
Coffee Market Report
June 24 2014
24th June, 2014.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative sector of this market increase their net long position within this market by 1.36% in the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th June, to register a net long position of 22,382 Lots on the day. This speculative net long position within the London market which is the equivalent of 3,730,333 bags has most likely been increased following the latter days of positive trade.
The Mexico national coffee association Amecafe have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of May were 63,938 bags or 20.19% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 252,703 bags. This lower volume has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first eight months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year having been 683,842 bags or 29.36% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,644,812 bags.
Thus, with the export figures now in from Mexico, the assessment of the export performance for the month of May for the greater bloc of fine washed Arabica producers, to include the main five Central American producers; Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador, as well as Mexico, Colombia and Peru, this brings the cumulative export total for the month of May to 2,858,250 bags and 15,300 bags increase on that of the same month last year. The largest contributors toward this increased export figure with a surge in exports up 196,098 bags on that of last year from Honduras, as well as a smaller 38,963 bags but nevertheless an increase year on year for exports in May, from Nicaragua.
The cumulative figures for the first eight months of exports from the earlier in development Roya affected regions in Central America and Mexico are however, all negative when compared against that of the same eight month period in the previous coffee year. A continuation of the coffee crop recovery in Colombia and a consistent export performance from Peru to date, has assisted to fill in the gaps within the washed Arabica basket and the overall exports for the first eight months of this coffee year have thus far to the end of May come in at 1.42% below that of the previous year, at a total 18,829,993 bags.
The arbitrage between the markets widened yesterday to register at 87.50 usc/Lb., while this equates to a very attractive 49.32% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,705 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 2,518,683 bags. There was a 4,400 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 12,862 bags on the day.
It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, the earlier supportive sentiment within the Oil markets seemed to run out of steam and a softer day on the Oil markets, lending an influence on overall sentiment. It was a softer day overall for Oil, Sugar, Cocoa, robusta Coffee, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Silver and Platinum, It was a better day on the Gold markets which finished in positive territory and a steady day for Palladium and a positive day for Cotton, Copper and arabica Coffee. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.27% lower; to see this Index registered at 555.327. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending steady and trading at 1.702 to Sterling and 1.36 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 113.40 per barrel.
The London robusta coffee market started the day yesterday taking a softer track and with producer selling pressure weighing in at the outset. The New York market started the day on a steady note and in thin morning trade with underlying buyers supportive, this market regained upward momentum. This was however short lived as the presence of overhead sellers became apparent as the day progressed, to cap the gains as the opportunities were presented. The failure for this market to build upon the gains tested during the morning session lead to a mostly sideways day and in a somewhat muted session with modest volumes. The London robusta market seemed to follow suit with limited upward support and producer activity prevalent, to see this market finish the day near to the lows on the day. The New York arabica market did however, after a lacklustre afternoon saw a return to the upside once more and this market post a recovery late in the day to recover all the ground lost and close in positive territory and a buoyant finish to the day in New York but a softer close in London, to set the close yesterday, as follows;
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1967 – 23 JUL 175.10 + 1.85
SEP 1982 – 19 SEP 177.40 + 1.90
NOV 1987 – 19 DEC 181.00 + 2.00
JAN 1992 – 19 MAR 184.10 + 1.90
MAR 1997 – 21 MAY 185.80 + 1.85
MAY 2007 – 20 JUL 186.60 + 1.75
JUL 2017 – 18 SEP 186.65 + 1.80
SEP 2026 – 19 DEC 186.45 + 1.70
NOV 2034 – 18 MAR 186.10 + 1.60
JAN 2038 – 18 MAY 185.75 + 1.45
Coffee Market Report
June 23 2014
23rd June, 2014.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the washed arabica coffee New York market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund sector of the market decrease their net long position within this market by 2.06% in the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th June; to register a net long position of 39,320 Lots on the day. Over the same period the longer term in nature and steadier Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 1.64%, to register a net long on the day of 44,587 Lots.
During this same week of trade the Non Commercial Speculative sector of the market increased their net long position within the market by 1.59% to register a net long position of 26,664 Lots on the day. This speculative net long position within the New York market which is the equivalent of 7,559,244 bags has most likely been modestly increased over the following days of overall positive trade, which has since followed.
Following on from the announcement by J. M. Smucker and Kraft Foods that they were raising their wholesale prices for their prominent brands in North America, Starbucks confirmed on Friday that it will raise prices on some drinks offered by its U.S. shops and similarly increase list prices on its own brand of packaged coffee sold in supermarkets and other retail outlets. This news may continue to provide the New York market with a degree of support in speculative sentiment following the buoyant day registered on Friday. This move following on from increases announce by other leading roasters in this market, will likely be interpreted by the speculative sector as an affirmation of the prevailing levels on the coffee markets, as the main stream brands in this leading coffee consumer market can continue to pay up for coffee stocks, with the assistance of these price increases filtering into the market over the next months. Likewise this will raise the price barometer against which smaller players in the market can continue to operate within this highly competitive market.
The arbitrage between the markets widened yesterday to register this at 84.74 usc/Lb., while this equates to a very attractive 48.28% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 921 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 2,515,978 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 17,262 bags.
It was a positive day on the commodity markets on Friday, as concerns of possible disruptions to Oil supply from Iraq lead to a buoyant day on the oil markets. The latest round of economic data released by China assisted the trend with positive indicators well received by the markets. It was a positive day for Oil, Sugar, Coffee, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean and Palladium markets, while a steady to softer day for Gold, Silver, Platinum, Cotton and Orange Juice on the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.18% higher; to see this Index registered at 556.809. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending steady and trading at 1.703 to Sterling and 1.36 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 115.27 per barrel.
The London and New York markets both started the day on a positive note on Friday, with both markets retaining their buoyancy into the afternoon session. Along with speculative and commercial industry buyers present in what was relatively thin volume, there was a notable lack of producer participation and with Brazil mostly removed from the market over a long weekend holiday, the New York market surged ahead lacking significant sellers on the floor. The added assistance of an overall positive influence in the macro commodity index came into play to assist to boost the day. It was a similarly positive day in London, although this market was gradually restrained by sellers waiting above the market, which returned to finally cap the gains on the day in London. The volume of trade picked up pace toward the latter half of the session in New York with underlying buyer fixation support maintained most of the ground gained during the day to finish close to the day’s highs. The London market lost some ground toward the latter half of the day but managed to post a recovery ahead of the close, and a buoyant finish to the day in both markets to set the close on Friday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
JUL 1990 + 31 JUL 173.25 + 6.25
SEP 2001 + 35 SEP 175.50 + 6.40
NOV 2006 + 34 DEC 179.00 + 6.40
JAN 2011 + 34 MAR 182.20 + 6.40
MAR 2018 + 32 MAY 183.95 + 6.30
MAY 2027 + 32 JUL 184.85 + 6.25
JUL 2036 + 30 SEP 184.75 + 6.25
SEP 2044 + 27 DEC 184.85 + 6.20
NOV 2052 + 24 MAR 184.75 + 6.20
JAN 2056 + 24 MAY 184.50 + 6.20
Coffee Market Report
June 20 2014
The producer bloc of Central America, Dominican Republic, Colombia and Peru but excluding the unreported Mexico exports for the Month of May were seen to have been 3.1% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 2.6 million bags. This positive performance has contributed to the producer blocs cumulative exports for the first eight months of the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year to have been 2.1% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 17.2 million bags.
Albeit that the Mexican authorities have not reported the countries coffee exports for the month of May and likewise since February this year, one might guess that their exports from a 10% smaller new crop harvested over October 2013 to March 2014, would likewise have been similarly lower. Therefore one might have expected that their May exports might have been approximately 285,000 bags and therefore to inflate this producer bloc May exports to approximately 2.88 million bags.
Likewise to guess Mexico’s coffee exports to have been 10% lower for the first eight months of the present coffee year, to total approximately 2.1 million bags and therefore inflate the producer bloc cumulative exports for the first eight months of the present coffee year to approximately 19.3 million bags. But perhaps one should be cautiously more conservative and therefore, estimate that with Mexico included this producer bloc has exported at least 19 million bags, for the first eight months of this present coffee year.
It has been a very quiet week in Brazil with yesterday’s Corpus Christi public holiday being bridged by many into a long weekend, while Tuesday was a half day for all Brazilians who were distracted by their World Cup soccer match. Therefore with a two and half day week, there internal market trade and likewise export selling activity has been somewhat muted and is likely to inspire some catch up selling for the coming week. This is potentially in terms of the related price fixation hedge selling activity, something of a cap to the prospects of the New York market for the coming week.
Albeit that in terms of exporters having good volumes of forward sales in hand, that the coffee exports from Brazil are steaming along and with volumes that are seemingly indicating that the country shall export approximately 33 million to 34 million bags of coffee during the present October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year. Thus with an approximate 20.5 million bags domestic market demand and overall demand of approximately 54 million bags one could perhaps extrapolate this to indicate a similar demand for the coming coffee year, and thus if one is to work with 10 million bags of carryover 2013 arabica coffee stocks and a new crop that is conservatively 49 million bags a coffee supply of 59 million bags and a surplus of 5 million bags, to fuel carryover stocks into the next 2015 crop.
The Cameroun has reported their May robusta coffee exports to have been 1300 bags or 2.97% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 45,000 bags. This improved performance does however follow a slow start earlier in the year and for the Cameroun, which works with a robusta coffee year from December to November. In this respect they report their cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first six months of the December 2013 to November 2014 coffee year to be 5,317 bags or 3.79% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 134,783 bags.
The Cameroun has also reported their arabica coffee exports for the month of May which was 3,633 bags or 86.15% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 7,833 bags. This with the country working on a conventional coffee year for their arabica coffees and following a very slow start, has contributed to the country’s cumulative arabica coffee exports for the first eight months of the October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year to have been 5,267 bags or 26.35% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at total of 14,717 bags.
The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 79.92 usc/Lb., while this still equates to a very attractive 47.26% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative arabica coffee prices.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 5,283 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,516,899 bags. There was meanwhile no change to the number of bags pending grading for the exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 17,262 bags.
The steady day by day decrease in these New York washed arabica coffee certified stocks that reflects mostly the tighter supply and positive export differentials of Roya affected Mexican and Central American coffee from the last harvest, should by nature be supportive for speculative sentiment within the market. But it would seem that the players are already looking forward to the prospects of an over 10% increase for the regions new crop that is due to start being harvested in the lower grown districts in four months’ time, rather than the negative growth of these stocks for the present.
The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, but with the softer nature of the U.S. dollar proving supportive in selected markets, while the Iraq problem continued to underpin the Oil markets. The Oil, Sugar, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Platinum markets had a day of buoyancy and the Natural Gas and Palladium markets were steady, while the Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton and Orange Juice markets were softer for the day. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.93% higher; to see this Index registered at 555.83. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar tending softer and trading at 1.705 to Sterling and 1.363 to the Euro, while Brent Crude is near to steady in early trade and is selling at $ 115.30 per barrel.
The coffee markets opened the day yesterday with the London market tending softer and the New York market showing modest buoyancy, but with the London market soon recovering into positive territory, while the New York market turned south and moved into a negative track. As the afternoon progressed the London market one again came under pressure and moved back into negative territory, while the New York market bounced off its lows and recovered some of its losses. The London market continued to end the day on a soft note and with 72.7% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day marginally softer but with only 22.7% of the earlier losses of the day intact. It was however never
