Coffee Market Report
The Chinese Customs Authority have reported that the country exported 541,667 bags of coffee during the 2024 Calander year, an increase of 358% year on year, with the main export markets being the Netherlands, Germany and the United States. With the season underway in China, arabica coffee is mainly grown in the Yunnan Province and forecast to produce around 1.80 million bags for the current 2024/2025 coffee year, on par with the previous coffee year.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange posted an increase by 10,371 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 803,066 bags, with 96.95% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 778,594 bags and the remaining 3.05% being held in the USA at a total 24,472 Bags. Of this, a total 820,212 bags or 64.78% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 9.78% of these certified coffees, from Peru. The pending grading stocks posted a decrease of 7,388 bags on the day, to register 10,346 bags pending grading on the day.
The May 2025 to May 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 130.64 Usc/Lb. This equates to 34.54% price discount for the London robusta coffee.
It was an overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as investors now await Friday's release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the US Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge, for insights into the central bank's rate-easing path and monetary policy. The Cocoa, Sugar and Soybean market ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Corn, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a negative note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.267 Sterling, at 1.051 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.747 Brazil Real.
The New York and London markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on modest firmer notes respectively. The New York market finding support in early trade to move into positive territory, the London market continued on a softer path. The buying support within the New York market was short lived, and sellers appeared to absorb the buyers, to see the trend move in softer direction for the remainder of the early morning session. The markets continued on a softer trajectory, the arrival of the America’s reflected increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor assisting to trigger stops along the way. The London market followed suit, triggering stops as speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, the New York market marginally recover some of the earlier losses of the day, whilst the London market recovered most of the earlier losses to reflect a softer close for both the New York and London markets.
The London market ended the day on a negative note with 67.13% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 63.57% of the earlier losses of the day intact. The close, with the New York market settling near to the lows of the day with most of the earlier losses intact, could attract a degree of buyer activity, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK USC/LB.
MAY 5407 – 143 MAY 375.90 – 8.90
JUL 5369 – 137 JUL 366.90 – 8.00
SEP 5315 – 128 SEP 358.05 – 6.80
NOV 5229 – 117 DEC 346.10 – 6.15
JAN 5137 – 107 MAR 335.95 – 6.05
MAR 5055 – 95 MAY 322.90 – 6.25
MAY 4975 – 86 JUL 307.15 – 6.60
JUL 4896 – 86 SEP 290.60 – 7.00
