Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 120.13% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th March 2026: to register a new long position of 7,696 lots, which is the equivalent of 2,181,782 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed, following the period of softer trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 34,440 Lots or the equivalent of 9,763,587 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 11.75% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in Nature Managed Money Fund increased their net long position by 50.96% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th March 2026; to register a new long position at 18,663 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net-long position by 2.81% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 26,664 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector increase their net long position by 60.87% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 10th March 2026: to register a new net long position of 4,400 Lots which is the equivalent of 733,333 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased, following the period of overall softer trade that has since followed.

The U.S. Government’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre CPC reports that La Niña conditions are expected to shift to ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming month, with ENSO-neutral likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer. However, looking further ahead, there remains a 60% probability of El Niño developing by late summer 2026, although forecast uncertainty remains elevated at this time of year.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 19,812 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 572,004 bags, with 76.41% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 437,063 and the remaining 23.59% being held in the USA at a total 134,941 bags. Of this, a total 16,529 or 2.89% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 24.36% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 139,328 bags and 18.22% from Nicaragua at a total 104,225 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 24,261 bags on the day, registering 81,692 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Uganda making up 52.71% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 128.43 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.04% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, on the back of a firmer US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Cocoa, Corn and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Sugar market remained unchanged, while the Coffee, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.325 Sterling, at 1.144 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.329 Brazil Real.

The London market opened trading to the north of par in modest firmer territory on Friday, while the New York market started the day trading on a softer note from the outset. The markets quickly encountered sustained resistance to drop back into softer territory. Following the opening a sharply lower speculative selling track took hold in limited volume. The markets encountered an increased degree of selling pressure during the early afternoon session, with the arrival of the America’s reflecting increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor triggered stops along the way. The London market dropped lower following the moves in New York and speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade; the New York market recovered marginally off of the lows of the day, while the London market settled near to the lows for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 88.08% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 73.36% of earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through soft close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, to set the tone for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: