Market Reports

The northern hemisphere’s primary coffee-consuming markets including Canada, Europe, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States collectively account for approximately 95 million bags of coffee consumption per annum, gradually emerge from winter coffee moving towards the traditionally slower summer consumption months ahead. At the same time, macroeconomic conditions remain a key area of focus. While inflationary pressures have eased in direct comparison to previous years, consumer households across developed markets continue to face elevated living costs and tighter financial conditions. This has sustained concerns about discretionary spending, including out-of-home coffee consumption, although demand has proven relatively resilient. In the near term, pricing and supply dynamics are being influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Disruptions to key maritime trade routes, particularly through the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor, elevated freight costs, longer transit times, increased supply chain risk. These consumer markets continue to report low inventories while shipments become more complicated from pacific rim producer countries.

With in the midyear harvest producer countries meanwhile, the largest quality washed arabica producer, Colombia that has two harvests per year, with the mitaca harvest due to begin in the coming months. One might comment that the flow of this season’s main crop concluded notably earlier than last year, primarily due to persistent heavy rainfall during the first half of 2025. In contrast, conditions for the upcoming mitaca have been more favourable, albeit that several regions are likely to experience a delayed mitaca harvest as a knock-on effect of last year’s unusually wet weather.

Colombia’s total crop production over all for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, is forecast to come in at a lower year on year estimate at 13.50 million bags. The current 2025/26 crop follows a larger 14.86 million bag crop in the completed 2024/25 year. It is estimated that the country should target exports at approximately 11.50 million bags in the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year.

The current April 2025 to March 2026 coffee crop year in Peru is coming to an end, forecast to be somewhere in the region of 3.70 million bags, or 5.71% higher than the previous April 2024 to March 2025 coffee year. The registrations to the New York certified stocks have been supported to some degree by exports from this washed arabica coffee producer country, as the country prepares for new crop to start to come in soon. The new crop harvest will pick up pace in the coming months, first export shipments for the April 2026 to March 2027 seasonal year, generally due to start around May. For the coming new crop, forecasts indicate a marginal year on year improvement estimated at around 3.80 million bags.

The new coffee crop to come from Indonesia is set to start coming to the fore in the next couple of months as harvest of robusta coffees will soon begin, for their April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year. The new coffee crop which is around 80% robusta coffee and the balance arabica coffee, is forecast ahead of the harvest to potentially reach a forecast median of 11.50 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 9,826 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 581,830 bags, with 76.33% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 444,138 and the remaining 23.67% being held in the USA at a total 137,692 bags. Of this, a total 16,529 or 2.84% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 24.41% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 142,079 bags and 18.75% from Nicaragua at a total 109,115 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 15,988 bags on the day, registering 65,704 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Uganda making up 58.33% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 135.23 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.17% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, pressured by inflation concerns linked to ongoing Middle East tensions, while the prospect of tighter monetary policy and the US Dollar versus a basket of other currencies, weighed on sentiment. The Coffee, Cocoa, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Silver market steady, while the Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.331 Sterling, at 1.150 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.234 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a firmer note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the south of par on a modest softer note from the outset. Both markets dropped back deeper into negative territory during the early morning session to set a new low for the day. The markets found support near to the day’s lows and quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory. This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed. The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, with less than half of the day’s gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 41.67% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 92.22% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, with the New York market trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day, while the London market settled on a firmer note back from the days highs in a good volume day, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: