Market Reports

The analysts Safras & Mercado report that Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 77% of the estimated 64.25 million bags from the 2025/26 crop. This pace lags behind the same time last year, when around 93% of the crop had already been sold. Uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs with the U.S. may have contributed to the slower selling pace; although tariffs were lifted in late November, export sales to the U.S. have resumed more gradually than in previous years.

Looking ahead, Safras & Mercado have forecast that for the coming Brazil July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year, production is expected to reach 71 million bags. This figure around 10.50% higher than the current July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year. The forecast is that arabica production will see an estimated 21.80% increase in the coming 2026/27 coffee year, to total 46.70 million bags and that Conilon robusta production will see a comparative 6% decrease when compared to the current record coffee year, to total 24.30 million bags.

It is reported that Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 12% of the estimated 71 million bags from the upcoming 2026/27 crop. The anticipated larger arabica harvest is expected to provide much-needed relief to the tight global supply pipeline following several consecutive years of lower crops. This increase is seen as essential to meet both domestic consumption and export demand. However, the slower pace of forward sales compared to last year likely reflects subdued internal market conditions, where well-financed producers have little incentive to sell, and buyers remain cautious in their forward purchasing strategies.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 2,566 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 579,265 bags, with 76.47% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 442,987 and the remaining 23.53% being held in the USA at a total 136,287 bags. Of this, a total 15,629 or 2.71% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 24.28% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 140,665 bags and 18.84% from Nicaragua at a total 109,115 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 10,302 bags on the day, registering 76,006 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Uganda making up 53.12% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 134.77 Usc/Lb. This equates to 45.72% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due to be announced later today, while leading in influence Oil prices fluctuate in line with macro geopolitical sentiment. The Coffee, Soybean, Sugar, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Gold and Corn markets steady, while the Cocoa, Wheat and Silver markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.336 Sterling, at 1.154 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.193 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest firmer note, while the New York market started the day trading near to unchanged at the start of the day. The London market quickly gained momentum gapping higher at the outset of the early morning session, in limited volume. The New York market was slower to react, before gaining support to trend in a firmer direction to build support into the mid-morning. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day brought fresh volume to New York to accentuate the technical day and push buy stops along the way, speculative short covering activity saw the New York market gain ground throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the upward momentum before finding resistance at the day’s highs to drop back and trend towards par, the market settled on a firmer note with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market followed was also seen to settle on a firm note at the close, albeit with more than half of the day’s gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 69.33% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 21.84% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of support and direction albeit that the markets dropped back from the highs of the day, in fair volumes of trade, with the New York market settling on a modest firmer note at the close with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: