Market Reports

Ethiopia, Africa’s leading arabica coffee producer is independently forecast to produce 8.50 million bags for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, around 4.50% lower in production than the previous year. The export performance in 2024/25 would indicate another year of potential for Ethiopia to export 7.50 million bags of green coffee. This was a feature of this country’s export performance in the prior year, related to an internal easing of foreign exchange regulations, equally met with the historic all-time high value in the arabica futures market. The median of forecast for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year is that the exclusively arabica coffee crop from Ethiopia could reach 8.25 million bags. With limited carryover stocks after the record 2024/25 export season, domestic consumption is estimated to be somewhere in the region of 3.50 to 4 million bags. The macro external influencing factor of further disrupted logistics along the Red Sea is likely to have an impact on scheduled sailings from this landlocked country, and the export corridor via neighbouring Djibouti and is being closely monitored as so too is equipment, and additional freight becoming challenging.

Uganda, Africa’s leading robusta producer and the fourth-largest robusta exporter to non-producing consumer markets, is projected to see coffee production levels increase in the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year. Public estimates suggest a total output of a potential 8 million bags. This comprises approximately 7 million bags of robusta and 1 million bags of arabica coffee. For the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, production is expected to reach marginally higher levels of around 8.40 million bags based on a larger robusta crop to come. Exports from the current coffee year continue to reflect higher month on month figures, with the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority reports that the cumulative exports for the first four months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 530,421 bags or 28.40% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 2,398,084 bags.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are creating significant logistics challenges for East Africa’s coffee sector, largely due to disruptions along critical maritime trade routes such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor. The exceedingly well reported congestion and conflict increase in the Strait of Hormuz equally deterring cargo vessels, while the route via the Cape of Good Hope extends lead-time, to the North West, the disruptions are equally experienced from the East African coast along the trade routes to the East, and from tea and coffee producing countries, Ethiopia and Tanzania as well as landlocked countries reliant on key east African ports for export of products, Kenya the largest exporter of tea and Uganda a principal coffee exporter via Mombasa, to Middle East, and beyond. With vessels facing rerouting and delays, exporters are experiencing elevated freight costs and longer transit times, which in turn affect delivery schedules and contract reliability. The increased complexity and risk in the supply chain are also contributing to sustained comparatively low inventory levels in destination markets, as shipments East African producer countries become less predictable.

Within Brazil, most coffee growing regions received good levels of rainfall this week, with weather forecasters predict that rains will continue to fall over the week ahead, and temperatures forecast to remain in the mid to low twenties in degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee from The Central Bank announced yesterday that the Selic rate has been decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 14.75%. This marks the first interest rate cut in two years.

Following the low and slow registrations of coffee to come to the certified warehouses of the exchange during 2025, there has been overall gradual daily registrations of new volumes of arabica coffees tendered to the exchange, up by 98,994 bags since the beginning of 2026, as well coffees that are in the pipeline to be delivered to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) warehouse in Europe, potentially to be graded and enter the exchanges certified stocks. The latest report states that the main origins pending grading are 26,114 bags of Honduran coffee along with a further 13,121 bags of coffee from Brazil waiting to be graded.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 33,472 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 552,149 bags, with 74.63% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 412,068 and the remaining 25.37% being held in the USA at a total 140,081 bags. Of this, a total 22.450 or 4.06% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 22.48% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 124,101 bags and 16.12% from Nicaragua at a total 89,003 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 4,092 bags on the day, registering 65,725 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Honduras making up 59.70% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 134.47 Usc/Lb. This equates to 44.69% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, as rising oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions raised inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of prolonged high interest rates. While the US Dollar strengthened on the day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.340 Sterling, at 1.156 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.221 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the north of par on firm footing from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory. This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed. The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, near to the highs of the day’s trading range.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 95.75% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 82.90% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a comparatively modest volume day, with the speculative sector at the helm, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: