Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 36.45% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th March 2026: to register a new long position of 10,601 lots, which is the equivalent of 3,005,336 bags. This net long position has most likely been increased further, following the period of firmer overall trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 37,330 Lots or the equivalent of 10,582,890 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 8.39% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in Nature Managed Money Fund decreased their net-long position by 0.38% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th March 2026; to register a new long position at 18,592 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net-long position by 0.74% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 26,468 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector switch their net long position to a new net short position within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 17th March 2026: to register a new net short position of 1,894 Lots which is the equivalent of 315,667 bags. This net short position has most likely been decreased, following the period of overall firmer trade that has since followed.

The largest Conilon robusta coffee cooperative in Brazil, Cooabriel reported on Friday a strong 2025 performance, with the cooperative’s revenue rising 17% to over 3 billion reais around US$ 572 million, driven primarily by a record harvest and favourable coffee prices. The cooperative also reported a 20% rise in membership to over 9,700 farmers in 2025. Looking ahead, Brazil’s Conilon Robusta production is expected to grow further in 2026, with output projected to reach about 22.10 million bags, as forecast by Conab, the Brazil government food supply and statistics agency. This, as the new Conilon Robusta crop is due to begin start harvest in a few weeks’ time. One might comment that the estimate by Conab is traditionally conservative and that the coming Brazil Conilon new crop could reach a level of around 25 million bags, although this figure lower year on year by 7.50%, it is off the back of the 27 million bags record production in 2025/26.

Conilon robusta coffee is traditionally the key component for local Brazil coffee blends, to fuel this country’s estimated total 21.50 million bags of local consumption, and value addition soluble and other finished coffee product exports. The export performance from Brazil Conilon this seasonal year is reflected in the reported first eleven months of the current April 2025 to March 2026 that has registered at 3.70 million bags, or 53.92% decrease in export performance in the Conilon robusta segment versus the same time last year, as the 2024/25 year, which was a record export year for Brazil Conilon robusta. One might comment that a combination of low carryover stocks leading into the prevailing bumper Conilon crop year, along with the heightened incentive in view of the inverted market and the arbitrage has likely led to a greater extent of local consumption of Conilon robusta versus tighter in supply terms, natural arabica. It is likely however, that there will be larger carryover stocks from the current Conilon coffee year into the coming 2026/27 crop given the lower overall exports and higher internal prices allowing well financed coffee producers to hold coffees and release these at a measured pace.

Within the coffee futures market, prices continue to find support from a convergence of supply-side constraints and macro-driven logistical challenges. The Brazilian domestic market remains notably tight, with well financed producers taking a measured stance on selling despite expectations of a larger upcoming crop. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to a more complex and unpredictable global logistics environment. Disruptions to key shipping routes, alongside increased freight costs and extended transit times, are constraining the efficient flow of coffee from origin to destination.

As a result, the futures markets are showing signs of widening nearby spreads, reflecting a growing premium on prompt delivery versus further out positions. This structure suggests continued tightness in the physical market, as buyers compete for limited spot availability. Certified and destination exchange stocks remain at relatively low levels and, given current shipping bottlenecks and origin holding patterns, are unlikely to see meaningful replenishment in the short term.

Collectively, in the short term these factors are reinforcing a bullish tone, with speculative participation increasing as market participants respond to tightening fundamentals and persistent logistical constraints. Unless there is a material shift in producer selling behaviour or a meaningful easing of global freight conditions, the market is likely to remain supported in the near term, with volatility driven by both macroeconomic developments and origin-specific supply updates.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 10,710 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 541,439 bags, with 74.49% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 403,320 and the remaining 25.51% being held in the USA at a total 138,119 bags. Of this, a total 21,561 or 3.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 22.35% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 121,014 bags and 15.79% from Nicaragua at a total 85,513 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 700 bags on the day, registering 66,425 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Honduras making up 59.07% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 143.55 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.34% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day the commodity markets on Friday, as a stronger US Dollar, on the back of fears of higher energy prices, pressured commodity markets. Expectations of persistently high inflation and potential interest rate hikes to come from major central banks continue to weigh on sentiment, contributing to broader volatility across commodities. The New York Arabica Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.332 Sterling, at 1.155 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.313 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day firmer note on Friday, while the New York market followed also opening the day trading to the north of par on a firmer note. After a positive open, the markets staged further gains during the early session, with underlying buying support and minimal selling pressure. During the mid-morning session, a temporary ceiling was approached and the markets pulled back from the earlier highs. As the afternoon progressed, the London market dropped into softer territory, while the New York market continued to trend firmer, buoyed by support in the market. The London market found support near to the lows of the day to recover most of the earlier losses and end the day on a modest near to unchanged softer note at the close. The New York market held firm for the remainder of the session, finding renewed support towards the close. The market hit a ceiling late in the day to limit the gains to see the New York market settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged negative note, with 10.20% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note, with 79.37% of earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note albeit back from the day’s lows and the New York market settling on a firmer note, with most of the earlier gains intact, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: