Market Reports

The National Coffee Association NCA, based in the United States, held its annual convention earlier this month in Tampa, Florida, convening industry participants to assess market developments, macroeconomic headwinds, and the evolving global coffee landscape. Discussions centred on inflation and interest rate expectations, highlighting rising input costs across the supply chain, tighter financing conditions due to elevated borrowing costs, and currency volatility, all of which are placing pressure on margins and pricing strategies. In parallel, shifting consumer behaviour was a key focus, with participants noting a growing divide between value-conscious consumers and those able to spend on premium offerings, the evidence of sustained at-home consumption, as well as apparent increase in demand for convenience such as ready-to-drink and single-serve products. The question of consumer interest in sustainability and ethically sourced coffee versus reception to the inevitable increase in cost that these products must carry, remains topical. The convention also provided a preview of the forthcoming National Coffee Data Trends report, which is expected to deliver updated insights into consumption patterns, demographic preferences, coffee’s overall economic contribution to the US economy, and the outlook for demand, offering a critical data-driven foundation for industry decision-making later this year. The USA remains the largest individual importer and consumer market country for coffee consumption that is pegged in the region of 26 million bags.

Meanwhile, major coffee-consuming regions across the northern hemisphere, including Canada, Europe, Japan, United Kingdom, who collectively account for roughly 69 million bags of annual demand are now transitioning out of the peak winter consumption period into spring and ahead, summer months. Despite some moderation in inflation, households in these developed economies continue to face elevated cost pressures and restrictive financial conditions, keeping discretionary spending, particularly out-of-home coffee consumption, under close watch, even as underlying demand remains relatively steady.

On the logistics front, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt key shipping corridors such as the Asian, Pacific Rim and East Africa shipment corridors, as congestion mounts and shipping lanes alter course to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal. This is contributing toward higher freight costs, longer transit times, and increased, already tight inventory risk in consumer markets. This latter, reflected in this weeks’ arabica futures market upward momentum and widening spreads in the front month positions.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 8,878 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 532,561 bags, with 75.09% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 399,892 and the remaining 24.91% being held in the USA at a total 132,669 bags. Of this, a total 22,834 or 4.29% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 21.58% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 114,939 bags and 15.54% from Nicaragua at a total 82,763 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 1,514 bags on the day, registering 67,939 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Brazil and Honduras making up 67.81% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 142.03 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.26% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day the commodity markets yesterday, as broader macroeconomic dynamics continue to dominate commodity markets, as expectations of persistently higher interest rates continue. The rumoured temporary de-escalation in Middle East risk sentiment seen yesterday, assisted to weigh energy prices and the US Dollar lower on the day. The Soybean, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.339 Sterling, at 1.158 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.232 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par, dropping back to set a low for the early morning session, the markets quickly reversed the trend to gain momentum during the early morning session and the trade back through par setting a new high for the day. The support continued through the remainder of the morning session, with the markets trading in positive territory, settling into a range. As the afternoon progressed the markets encountered resistance to drop back from the early highs and trend through par and into softer territory. Late in the day, a degree of speculative long liquidation followed, both the New York and London markets dropping back to set a new low for the day. As the session progressed and the activity increased, albeit in comparatively modest terms, the markets found support near to the lows of the day to recover from the earlier losses whilst trading below par and in negative territory, the New York market settled on a softer note at the close with some of the earlier losses of the day intact, whilst the London market settled on a likewise softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 35.06% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 31.25% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a relatively large trading range session, and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: