Market Reports

Within Brazil meanwhile, the focus in the arabica growing areas will now be on harvest preparations ahead of the new July 2026 to June 2027 coffee harvest, whereas in the Conilon robusta areas, the 2026 harvest has begun.

The current Brazil July 2025 to June 2026 coffee crop, that has been put at a median of 67 million bags production, is forecast to reach a level of around 41.50 million bags of a total coffee exports over the twelve-month seasonal year, this boosted by a conservatively estimated at a very low 1.65 million bags of carry over inventory from the 2024/25 coffee year.  This latter year, which was put at a median production of 64.50 million bags.  Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption, meanwhile, is estimated to be steady this year at around 22 million bags.

The coming Brazil July 2026 to June 2027 coffee crop has been estimated by independent forecasters at a median of 72 million bags, made up of around 46.50 million bags arabica coffee and 25.50 million bags Conilon Robusta Coffee. This is a cyclically higher production year and is necessary to continue to fuel consumer market demand, A sizeable Brazilian crop may be seen as necessary, not only to satisfy domestic demand but also to supplement limited local inventory, while this leading producer and exporter of arabica coffee to consumer markets worldwide, will aim to maintain export market share of roughly 43 million bags to key consuming markets

The Brazil Conilon robusta crop has started harvest and the coming Brazil arabica coffee crop due to begin harvesting closer to middle of the year.  The perspective from many of the earlier reports would indicate that the new Conilon robusta crop shall be in line or marginally better than the previous year’s production, likely to exceed domestic market demand and provide a boost to potential Conilon robusta exports to consumer markets, to potentially assist to build consumer stocks within consumer countries of Conilon robusta coffees.

The Brazil arabica coffee crop that is soon to begin harvest is an up-cycle crop year and, is estimated to come in close to the last recording breaking biennial bearing upcycle in 2021/2022 that according to Brazil’s government food supply and statistics agency CONAB registered 48.50 million bags. One might comment that prior to the Brazil frost that occurred during July 2021, historically there was a sizeable difference between the upcycle and downcycle Brazil coffee crops, on average conservatively a difference of between 6 – 8 million bags per annum.  The impactful frost events in 2021 is thought to be one of the factors that has brought about an overall less significant biennial bearing in Brazil at the outset of this decade.  This, as farmers dealt with a combination of post frost treatments of affected coffee areas, depending on the extent of the damage sustained, by means of skeletal pruning, or ratooning practices, as well as other mitigation.  This together with increased planting, improved affordability, and coffee husbandry, has seen this gap between the upcycle and downcycle in crop years narrow.  This is reflected in the current crop 2025/26 and coming 2026/27 crop years that will register two consecutive larger coffee crops from Brazil. The coming crop has experienced mostly conducive weather through crop development and, barring any unforeseen climatic influence in the months ahead, is needed and likely to be sufficient to fuel both domestic and consumer market demand through to next year.

Weather conditions within Vietnam continue to be monitored closely as the new October 2025 to September 2026 crop develops. The central highlands have experienced conducive growing conditions during the first quarter of the year, with the rainy season traditionally beginning in April. Forecasters are now predicting rainfall to pick up toward the end of the month, which will be a much-welcomed development for producers and market participants alike.

The October 2025 to January 2026 harvest is anticipated to reach 31 million bags of Robusta coffee, some 13.55% higher than the previous coffee year. For the full October 2025 to September 2026 crop year, now at the halfway point of its export cycle, Vietnam is forecast to export a total of 24.50 million bags, approximately 10.50% more than the previous coffee year. This recovery in production is critical to sustaining consumer market demand, following three consecutive years of lower output. The current larger crop is already helping to boost shipments to consumer markets, although the potential for carry-over stocks into the 2026/27 season is expected to remain limited. This is particularly significant given Vietnam’s dominant position as the primary supplier of Robusta coffee into northern hemisphere blends; a fact reflected in export statistics released by the Vietnam Customs Authority. Cumulative exports for the first six months of the current coffee year are 23.96% higher than the same period in the previous year, reaching a six-month total of 14.92 million bags. Early estimates for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 Robusta coffee crop are put at a level of around 30.50 million bags.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 4,107 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 541,986 bags, with 74.36% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 402,997 and the remaining 25.64% being held in the USA at a total 138,989 bags. Of this, a total 24,176 or 4.46% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.59% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 138,713 bags and 13.38% from Nicaragua at a total 72,542 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 6,806 bags on the day, registering 20,232 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 71.04% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 144.22 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.40% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, as peace talks in the Middle East continue this week, while investors asses what impact this may have on inflation and interest rates to come. The Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.358 Sterling, at 1.181 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.989 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading in firmer territory, gaining momentum from the outset to trend in a firmer direction. Both the New York and London markets continued to build support as the day progressed.  As the afternoon progressed the New York market set a new high for the day, before dropping back to trade around par. The London market continued to find support, triggering technical buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, albeit in modest trade volume.  The New York market traded mostly firmer around par during the late afternoon session before gaining a degree of support during the late afternoon session towards the close, to see the market settle on a firmer note with more than half of the earlier gains of the day intact, with first notice day due next week 22^nd April for the New York May position. The London market set a firmer track to settle on a firmer close with most of the gains of the day intact

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 86.42% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise firmer note, with 57.14% of earlier gains of the day intact.  This follow through firmer close might see the markets set for a steady start to early trade today, albeit that the markets dropped back from the highs of the day during the session to settle on firmer notes at the close, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: