Market Reports

In the latest round of independent forecast updates, the analysts Safras & Mercado revised their earlier projections for the coming Brazil July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year, production is expected to be at a level reach 75.65 million bags. This figure is 6.55% higher than the previous estimate and 17% higher than the current July 2025 to June 2026 coffee year. The report forecasts that Arabica production will total 49.95 million bags, an increase of 6.96% when compared to their initial estimate and that Conilon Robusta production that will reach 25.70 million bags, an increase of 5.76% from their initial estimate. The report makes reference to favorable weather conditions experienced during the development phase, which is leading one to believe that there will be increased yields. This revised estimate is at the upper end of the median average of independent forecasters who foresee on average, the overall Brazil 2026/27 coffee production to potentially reach 72 million bags.

The analysts Safras & Mercado report Brazilian coffee farmers have sold approximately 14% of the estimated 75.65 million bags from the upcoming 2026/27 crop, lagging behind the five-year average for the time of year at 23%. The anticipated larger arabica harvest is expected to provide much-needed relief to the tight global supply pipeline following several consecutive years of lower crops. This increase is seen as essential to meet both domestic consumption and export demand. However, the slower pace of forward sales compared to the average, likely reflects subdued internal market conditions, where well-financed producers have little incentive to sell, and buyers remain cautious in their forward purchasing strategies. In the interim, availability of coffee remains tight with the first export shipments from the new crop expected to begin in July.

The National Coffee Association (NCA) based in the USA have released their latest Coffee Data Trends Report in which, they report that information extrapolated from the relatively small sample of respondents, an average 66% of Americans surveyed have indicated that they had a cup of coffee in the past day, this figure unchanged from their 2025 report.  The report further illustrates a decrease in out-of-home consumer behaviour, with this an indication of the tighter inflationary economic landscape, coffee consumption from out-of-home venues decreasing by 1% over the last 5 years, to report that 28% of coffee drinkers consumed at least one cup of coffee from an out of home venue in the last day. While at home consumption continues to be the most preferred venue for coffee consumption with the USA, the report states that 82% of all coffee prepared is consumed at home, stable over the last 5 years.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 6,391 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 546,093 bags, with 74.55% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 407,104 and the remaining 25.45% being held in the USA at a total 138,989 bags. Of this, a total 24,676 or 4.51% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.75% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 140,638 bags and 13.28% from Nicaragua at a total 72,542 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 8,649 bags on the day, registering 13,426 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Honduras, this adds up to 40.96% of the total.  

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 145.80 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.17% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day the commodity markets yesterday, With the US Dollar index lower on the day, a weaker Dollar is traditionally a bullish factor for commodities trading in other currencies, while developments around potential talks in the Middle East, helped ease some immediate inflation concerns and saw the Oil markets take a softer track on the day. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Soybean market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.356 Sterling, at 1.179 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.984 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading in firmer territory. The markets continued to trade in positive territory making gains throughout the remainder of the morning session.  Both the New York and London markets buoyed firmer as support continued during the early morning session, gaining momentum in modest volume for the day.  The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day was met with some degree of pressure within the New York market, as sellers came to the for with the market dropping back from the earlier in the day highs to trend through par and into modest softer territory, the pressure was short lived and the New York market found support near to the lows of the day to rebound and trade into positive territory with a degree of short covering buoying New York firmer. The London market continued on a firmer path throughout the afternoon session. The New York market encountered resistance late in the day, as the upward momentum was capped, the market dropped back and settled on a firm note at the close, with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market settled on a firmer note at the close, near to the highs of the day.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 89.92% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise firmer note, with 40.91% of earlier gains of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets might indicate some degree of confidence, albeit that the New York market dropped back from the day’s high during the afternoon session, to settle with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the London market settled near to the highs of the day, with first notice day in the prompt month in the New York market due in a weeks’ time, to possible see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: