Market Reports

In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, the consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth with their report to revise their Brazil coffee production forecast higher by 6.51% from their earlier estimate to now forecast that production could potentially be around 75.30 million bags the coming July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year.  Their forecast anticipates 50.20 million bags of mostly natural arabica coffee to come from this leading producer, 6.35% higher from their previous estimate along with an estimated 25.10 million bags Conilon robusta coffee, 6.81% higher than previous forecast. This estimate is at the upper end of the median average of independent forecasters who foresee on average, the overall Brazil 2026/27 coffee production to potentially reach 72 million bags.

StoneX has also forecast that global coffee demand for the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year could reach approximately 172.50 million bags, representing year-on-year growth of 2.50% against a global coffee production that is forecast to reach 182.50 million bags, 7.29% higher than the previous year, implying a return to surplus supply of close to 10 million bags. The projected ten million bag surplus that is currently forecast to come, represents a rebalancing rather than a return to surplus, following the years of deficit that have left global origin carryover stocks at historically low levels.

In consumer retails news, Starbucks has confirmed that the sale of a controlling stake in its China operations to investment firm Boyu Capital has been concluded. The reported sees Boyu acquire 60% of Starbucks’ retail business in the country.  The coffee chain will continue to own and license its brand and intellectual property to the new joint venture. Starbucks operates 8,000 stores in China, compared to its primary rival, Luckin Coffee who it is reported, now operate over 26,000 stores.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 1,824 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 548,544 bags, with 75.61% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 414,732 and the remaining 24.39% being held in the USA at a total 133,812 bags. Of this, a total 23,806 or 4.33% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.31% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 138,863 bags and 13.65% from Nicaragua at a total 74,870 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 1,027 bags on the day, registering 27,061 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 68.59% of the total.  

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 143.09 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.66% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall firmer day the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Dollar weaker on the day, while Oil prices tracked marginally lower following news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, assisting to ease short-term inflation expectations however one might comment that the persistent geopolitical uncertainty and elevated energy prices, will likely keep monetary policy cautious. The Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.339 Sterling, at 1.166 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.100 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a modest near to unchanged firmer note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading north of par on a firmer note from the outset. The markets found continued support early in the day and quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session, while the US Dollar was weaker on the day, potentially aiding in the upward momentum. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, with less than half of the day’s gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 32.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 91.91% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets, with the New York market trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day, with first notice day in the prompt due in less than two weeks’ time, while the London market settled on a firmer note back from the day’s highs in a good volume day, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: