Market Reports

The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of March were 30.97% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,521,650 bags.  The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for March will be released in the coming days and can be anticipated to detail the breakdown of this export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent. The reflected export figure is likely related to internal producer resistance in view of the decline in the value against the coffee futures markets, where New York has registered a rather dramatic decline in value of 42.70 usc/Lb., or 12.98% over two months since 1^st February 2026.

Looking ahead, the weather remains conducive ahead of the Brazil Conilon harvest that is soon to start in earnest while the vast arabica growing districts further to the south will need more time.  There is some discussion internally that excellent weather may see the arabica harvest start a little earlier than would seasonally anticipated.  There are rumblings from within the agricultural sector in Brazil, that is a breadbasket producer country and leading exporter of staple food commodities to consumer markets worldwide, sentiment similarly echoed in many other parts of the world, around the rising cost of production related to fuel increases, reported at 7% increase in April, in a vast country that is heavily reliant on road haulage to move consignments from the interior to urban consumer environments, and to ports.  The latest news that the Brazil central government is likely to implement a series of subsidies may provide interim relief, albeit temporary.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 602 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 546,720 bags, with 75.52% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 412,908 and the remaining 24.48% being held in the USA at a total 133,812 bags. Of this, a total 24,816 or 4.54% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.11% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 137,264 bags and 13.69% from Nicaragua at a total 74,870 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 7,985 bags on the day, registering 26,034 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 81.31% of the total.  

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 135.73 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.44% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall softer day the commodity markets yesterday, as broader macroeconomic dynamics continue to dominate commodity markets, as expectations of persistently higher interest rates continue. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to be an influencing factor, to weigh the US Dollar lower on the day. While there has been a conditional two-week ceasefire announced in the Middle East, during which shipping traffic will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Wheat and Gold markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Sugar, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.343 Sterling, at 1.169 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.152 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets opened trading to the north of par yesterday, the momentum short lived as both markets quickly set a high for the day before dropping into softer territory. Following the opening a sharply lower speculative selling track took hold in limited volume.  The lows attracted buying activity back to the floor, with the markets encountering an increased degree of selling pressure during the early afternoon session, with the arrival of the America’s reflecting increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor triggered stops along the way. The London market dropped lower emulating the moves in New York and speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, the New York market marginally recovered some of the earlier losses late in the day, whilst the London market settled near to the lows for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 94.33% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 95.60% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close, with both the London and New York markets settling near to the lows of the day with most of the earlier losses intact, in what was a volatile wide trading range day, to possibly see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows