Market Reports

The respected U.S. Department of Agriculture Global Agricultural Network USDA have reported their forecast for the exclusively arabica coffee crop from Honduras for the present October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, to reach an overall 5,530,000 bags, or 6.34% higher than the previous coffee production year October 2024 to September 2025 that is reported at 5,200,000 bags. The report cites that aaccording to the Honduran Coffee Institute IHCAFE, the projected growth is driven by improved plant nutrition, favourable biennial production cycles, expansion of productive area, enhanced pruning and crop management practices, and the maturation of newly established coffee plantations.

The same report has forecast that the new crop to come from Honduras for the forthcoming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, is anticipated to increase by 9.04% from the current year. The new arabica crop which is due to start harvest toward the end of the year, is forecast to come in at 6,030,000 bags. Of this new crop to come, the forecast is that Honduras will export 5,500,000 bags or 10.44% more than the current year.  Local consumption is reportedly growing by around 2% annually, albeit from a low base. The sector made up of a combination of imported soluble products as well as local and imported roast and ground coffee products, which is forecast by the USDA to be in the region of 380,000 bags during the current 2025/26 coffee year.

Today is the Labour Day public holiday in more than 160 countries and including most of the major European consumer countries and along with, most of the main of the coffee producer countries.   This, to include Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, the Central American countries, Indonesia, India, the African coffee producers.

The Early May Bank Holiday will be observed in the United Kingdom on Monday 4^th May 2025 which shall see the London Robusta coffee market closed on the day, while this does not include the U.S.A, the New York Arabica coffee terminal market shall trade solo on the day.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 250 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 494,758 bags, with 74.11% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 366,648 and the remaining 25.89% being held in the USA at a total 128,110 bags. Of this, a total 15,943 or 3.22% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.61% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 126,698 bags and 14.15% from Peru at a total 70,004 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 2,275 bags on the day, registering 20,986 bags pending grading, the majority origin pending grading Honduras, adding up to 49.91% of the total.   

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 134.57 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.29% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the conclusion of the Monetary Policy meeting late yesterday. Concerns were raised by the policy committee regarding inflation due to rising energy prices, a factor that will be central to discussions on interest rates going forward. The US Dollar strengthened on the day, traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Sugar markets ended the day on a firmer note, the New York Arabica Coffee market was unchanged on the day, while the London Robusta Coffee, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.346 Sterling, at 1.166 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.995 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a modest firmer note yesterday, followed by New York in positive territory from the outset. The momentum in London was capped early in the session, to see the London market drop back and track gradually lower, as the early morning progressed. The New York market set a high for the day during the early session before encountering resistance to drop back and trade in softer territory for the remainder of the morning session.  The activity in both markets was modest as the morning progressed with New York tracking lower by midday, with the London market following suit to set a new low for the day. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets recovered from the lows of the morning to trend back towards par. The London market traded through par, gaining support as the day progressed albeit in modest volumes. The New York market trended back towards par and into firmer territory. This support was short lived as sellers returned to the floor late in the day to see the New York market drop back and settle on an unchanged note at the close. The London market encountered resistance late in the day to drop back through par and settle on a softer note at the close, with more than half of the day’s losses intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 66.10% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day unchanged from the previous day’s close.  This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a comparatively modest softer note at the close and the New York market recovering all of the earlier losses of the day to settle on an unchanged note at the close, might indicate some degree of consolidation and with the US Dollar firmer on the day, one might think that the markets may be due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: