Market Reports

Coffee production in Kenya for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year shall likely reach 850,000 bags or 13.33% higher year on year. Of this crop, the forecast is that Kenya will export 11.11% more than the previous year at a total of 800,000 bags of green coffee while local consumption is growing from a low base, registered at a comparatively low 62,000 bags, which releases the majority of the coffee production to the export consumer market. Forecast for the coming 2026/27 year will soon start to come to the fore, which can be anticipated to reflect stable year on year production. Weather conditions have been reported to have improved with rainfall during February positive for the development of the fly crop which will begin harvest in the weeks ahead.

To the south meanwhile, Tanzania is expected to produce 1.45 million bags of coffee during the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, an increase of around 7.40%. This figure made up of around 750,000 bags arabica coffee and 700,000 bags robusta coffee. Looking ahead meanwhile, weather conditions have been reported to be conducive for the most part and combined arabica and robusta production for the coming 2026/27 year is expected to be on par with the current year. Furthermore, and with domestic consumption estimated at a modest 85,000 bags per annum, this shall leave most of the coffee production to export to consumer markets, with Japan and the European Union proving to be the dominant export markets for Tanzanian coffees. Good levels of rainfall have been experienced across the main growing regions as farmers look ahead to the new crop. One might comment that logistics continue to present significant challenges, with persistent congestion, vessel delays, and limited equipment availability at the port of Dar es Salaam. These constraints have been further exacerbated by the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has disrupted critical maritime routes and major shipping corridors. As a result, vessels are being rerouted, transit times have become less predictable. This has had a direct impact on export flows from East Africa for key commodities such as Coffee, Tea, Beans, Cashews and Cotton.

With a long weekend ahead, the London market will be closed on Friday and again on Monday in observance of Easter, while the New York market shall be closed on Friday and to trade solo for a shortened trading day on Monday.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 7,300 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 559,024 bags, with 74.81% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 418,220 and the remaining 25.19% being held in the USA at a total 140,804 bags. Of this, a total 23,924 or 4.28% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.67% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 143,525 bags and 14.21% from Nicaragua at a total 79,463 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 2,717 bags on the day, registering 31,386 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 58.98% of the total.

The May 2026 to May 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 137.47 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.99% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, as rising geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices, and persistent inflation risks, continue to influence global interest rate expectations. Ahead of key economic data that is due to be released by the US Federal Reserve later this week. The Cocoa, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa and Sugar markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.320 Sterling, at 1.147 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.252 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets opened trading to the south of par yesterday on modest softer notes, the markets traded around par to set a high for the day before dropping deeper into softer territory. Following the opening a sharply lower speculative selling track took hold in limited volume. The lows attracted buying activity back to the floor, with the markets encountering an increased degree of selling pressure during the early afternoon session, with the arrival of the America’s reflecting increased volume and a continuation of speculative selling on the New York floor triggered stops along the way. The London market dropped lower emulating the moves in New York and speculative long liquidation accentuated the negative moves in both markets. The influence of a firmer US Dollar potentially influencing local sentiment, contributing toward the action. The selling activity started to wane toward the end of the days’ trade, the New York market recovered some of the earlier losses late in the day, whilst the London market settled near to the lows for the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 95.08% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 91.10% of earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through softer close, with both the London and New York markets settling near to the lows of the day with most of the earlier losses intact, in what was a volatile wide trading range day, to possibly see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: