Market Reports

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of March, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 306,000, bags or 28.86% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 754,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first six months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,398,000 bags or 29.20% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 6,223,000 bags.

In the same report, the National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia post the country’s coffee exports for the month of March to be 462,000 bags or 36.96% lower than the same month last year, at a total 788,000 bags. The country’s cumulative coffee exports for first six months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, registered at 1,296,000 bags or 18.24% lower over the same period in the previous coffee year, to a total of 5,810,000 bags.

Colombia, the world’s largest producer of quality washed arabica with two annual crops and is currently harvesting its midyear mitaca crop. One might comment that the coffee flow from the main crop tapered off earlier than usual, largely due to persistent heavy rainfall in the first half of 2025. Conditions for the mitaca crop have to this point, been comparatively more favourable, however, some regions are expected to see delays in harvest as lingering effects of last year’s excessive rainfall have impacted crop development and could present parchment drying delays, that is traditionally for this quality washed arabica producer, sundried on open air patios.

Colombia’s total crop production over all for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, is forecast to come in at a lower year on year estimate at 13.50 million bags. The current 2025/26 crop follows a larger 14.86 million bag crop in the completed 2024/25 year. It is estimated that the country should target exports at approximately 11.50 million bags in the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year.  The median forecast for the coming 2026/27 coffee year is for Colombia to produce a crop in line with the current year at a level of around 13.50 million bags.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé reported preliminary data, that for April thus far registered 2 million bags of green coffee exports in the month.  Brazil has cumulatively registered exports from the first nine months of the 2025/26 coffee year, at 23.45 million bags which is 23.04% lower on that of the same period in the prior coffee export year.  With the new July 2026 to June 2027 coffee harvest ahead, weather conditions are reported to be mostly dry, with forecasts of sporadic rainfall in isolated areas of Cerrado and Espirito Santo, overall normal for the time of year as the cooler winter months approach.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 2,506 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 518,043 bags, with 73.99% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 383,282 and the remaining 26.01% being held in the USA at a total 134,761 bags. Of this, a total 20,883 or 4.03% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.76% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 138,648 bags and 13.51% from Peru at a total 70,004 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 5,080 bags on the day, registering 20,721 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 83.74% of the total.

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 141.28 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.04% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day the commodity markets yesterday, on the back of a firmer US Dollar against a basket of other currencies which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. While a Reuters poll concluded that the US Federal Reserve will wait at least six months before potentially cutting interest rates this year. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Sugar market remained unchanged on the day, while the Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.346 Sterling, at 1.168 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.025 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a near to unchanged note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading to the north of par from the outset. Both markets quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a slight degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a very firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back marginally and settle on a firm note, near to the highs of the day’s trading range.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 94.50% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 83.90% of earlier gains of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets, with both the New York and London markets trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day in a comparatively good volume day, with the speculative sector at the helm, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: