Market Reports

The respected United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network has revised their estimate for the Guatemala coffee crop that is made up of primarily washed arabica coffee over the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year down by 10.88% to now reach a total of 3.16 million bags. This decrease in production reported to be due to a higher incidence of coffee rust, due to increased moisture and temperature experienced in the coffee development phase.

The report further estimates that Guatemala production that is mainly quality washed arabica coffee, is due to increase slightly for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, at an estimated at 3.26 million bags, of which the report goes on to estimate 2.88 million bags will be exported to consumer markets from the coming crop harvest.  The year-on-year carryover stocks from the current October 2025 to September 2026 into the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year are depleted and are put at a relatively modest 11,000 bags ahead of the new harvest to come.  This new harvest traditionally begins around October each year, in the lower lying areas, to pick up pace as the cooler higher areas start harvest toward the end of the year.

The USDA report has revised their estimate for Guatemala domestic annual consumption over the current coffee year meanwhile, to be 21.53% higher than the previous estimate at a total of 875,000 bags, consisting of both instant coffee soluble imports as well as roast and ground product, with the report citing year on year growth, albeit from a low base, of out of home roast coffee consumption with expansion in the coffee shop sector as well as urbanization a contributing factor.

The United States Department of Agriculture USDA Global Agricultural Information Network has revised their estimate for the fine washed arabica coffee crop from El Salvador over the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year down by 12.53% to now reach a total of 586,000 bags, this reported decline in production as a result adverse weather conditions experienced during December 2025. The heavy rainfall caused substantial berry loss at peak ripeness and dried out remaining berries on the trees, reducing both yields and quality.

The report further estimates that El Salvador coffee production, is due to decrease by 7.51% during the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, at an estimated at 542,000 bags, of which the report goes on to estimate 505,000 bags will be exported to consumer markets from the coming crop harvest.  The year-on-year carryover stocks from the current October 2025 to September 2026 into the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year are put at a relatively high 147,000 bags ahead of the new harvest to come, this as producers have been seen to hold back coffee sales in the expectation of higher prices to come due to delays in the harvest and logistical challenges.  This new harvest traditionally begins around October each year, in the lower lying areas, to pick up pace toward the end of the year.

The USDA report has revised their estimate for El Salvador domestic annual consumption over the current coffee year meanwhile, to be 14.48% higher than the previous estimate at a total of 332,000 bags, consisting of mainly instant coffee soluble imports from neighbouring central American producer countries.

It is not common for the Central America washed coffee producer countries, that are in order of largest to smallest producer countries; Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and El Salvador;  to hold unsold coffee stocks between seasons, for various reasons that include quality concerns, internal storage, exchange risk and finance costs. It is more usual to find that these countries are in general terms sold out before the next new crop arrives.  In the past few volatile years, it could be said that all of these countries have in fact been very well sold, if not completely sold out six to eight months into their crop year and in advance of the next harvest cycle.  This seasonal marketing year is perhaps even more so pronounced as the leading USA consumer market tariff restraints created some disruption of regular coffee flow to this market at the outset, and contributed toward the already prevalent frontloaded seller activity within these producer countries, in line with the very attractive value to be had in New York in the last few months of 2025, and the start in 2026. The altered landscape of the arabica futures market that has registered hefty and rapid fire losses in the speculative liquidation that began in February, has raised concerns regarding the actual physical position within these countries, and the possibility that internal trade that had exchanged coffee at the height of the market, are in a most difficult position in a market that has since the start of 2026, shed 19.10% of value in  76 days of trade.

The Vietnamese market will be closed on Monday, Thursday and Friday next week due to upcoming public holidays, which will likely see most of the internal market players off the field of play for some of the week ahead.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 2,960 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 515,537 bags, with 74.28% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 382,960 and the remaining 25.72% being held in the USA at a total 132,577 bags. Of this, a total 20,883 or 4.05% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.26% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 135,364 bags and 13.92% from Peru at a total 71,772 bags. The pending grading stocks decreased by 7,852 bags on the day, registering 20,721 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 87.73% of the total.

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 134.75 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.60% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day the commodity markets yesterday, following comments by the Federal Reserve Chair that no commitments to the US administration have been made to cut interest rates, while tensions continue to rise in the Middle East while peace talks seemingly stall following news of ships seized in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.350 Sterling, at 1.170 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.965 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day yesterday on a modest firmer note, whilst the New York market opened the day trading on a very firm footing from the outset. Both markets set a new high for the morning session early in the day, before encountering resistance to drop back and trade towards par. The markets found support near to the day’s lows and quickly made gains with support to trend firmer through the remainder of the early morning session in limited trade volume to start the day. As the afternoon progressed, the New York market continued to trend in a firmer direction, where buyers buoyed the market higher in the absence of sellers, the day tracked quickly higher to trigger buy stops along the way, with limited liquidity aiding in the firmer trajectory.  This firmer action continued in both the New York and London markets as the day progressed.  The upward moment in New York in a market lacking any selling action continued through to the late afternoon session. The New York market encountered a degree of resistance late in the day to limit the gains with the market settling on a firm note and most of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market set a new high for the day during the late afternoon session before being capped to drop back and settle on a firm note, with less than half of the day’s gains intact.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 43.92% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise positive note, with 75.14% of earlier gains of the day intact.  This firmer close for the markets, with the New York market trading in firmer territory to settle near to the highs of the day, following first notice day against the May 2026 position yesterday, while the London market settled on a firmer note back from the day’s highs in a good volume day, might see the markets set for a buoyant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: