Market Reports

The winter months are approaching in the southern hemisphere, and this, traditionally sees the focus of the speculative sector within the coffee markets to shift to the largest coffee producer and exporter, Brazil and the potential for the arrival of cooler weather to the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil.  This coffee producer country accounts for on average 40.50% of global coffee production. There is some degree of dependency in world consumption terms upon this origin to produce good volumes of coffee year on year, to fuel both their own internal coffee demand as well as consumer market export demand. Thus, weather forecasts will be monitored closely by both the speculative sector and coffee industry participants, as winter months progress through August, with the potential to add further volatility to the coffee futures markets, in the short to medium term.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange were registered at 540,094 bags yesterday. This marks a decrease of 255,494 bags or 32.11% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 795,588 bags on 17^th April 2025.  The Certified Stocks held against the New York Exchange have increased by 24.11% since the beginning of 2026. One might note that the recent increase to the certified stock levels has been mostly attributed to the new crop from Honduras, although noting that these registrations have been smaller than one may have initially anticipated given the tighter internal market within this region, where the availability and flow of coffee has come to an earlier than anticipated slow down.  New pending registrations from Peru, may be expected to come to the fore as this washed arabica coffee producer begins to see new crop coffees from their 2026/27 harvest flow to consumer markets in the weeks and months ahead.

The certified warehouse coffee stocks are stored in consumer country warehouses of the exchange in Europe and in the USA. With Brazil semi-washed arabica coffee contributing 4.37% and boosted by coffees from Central American washed arabica producer countries. Honduras contributes 25.49% and Peru 13.92% of the total held in exchange warehouses. The coffee origins that can deliver to the certified stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 1,892 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 540,094 bags, with 74.45% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 402,106 and the remaining 25.55% being held in the USA at a total 137,988 bags. Of this, a total 23,605 or 4.37% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.49% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 137,712 bags and 13.92% from Peru at a total 75,172 bags. The pending grading stocks increased by 3,705 bags on the day, registering 23,937 bags pending grading, the majority origins pending grading Honduras and with washed Uganda a tenderable quality, this adds up to 78.67% of the total.  

The July 2026 to July 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 138.58 Usc/Lb. This equates to 47.72% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day the commodity markets yesterday, following positive US unemployment data released this week indicating that labour market conditions remain stable despite the geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar was firmer on the day, while the leading in influence Oil markets took a softer track. The Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.352 Sterling, at 1.178 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.991 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a modest near to unchanged note, whilst the New York coffee market opened the day trading to the south of par on a softer note from the outset. The markets encountered sustained resistance to trend lower for the remainder of the day. As the afternoon progressed, the downward pressure continued, leading to a bearish trajectory for the afternoon session. The US Dollar firmed marginally, adding some weight to the markets. Despite the downward pressure, a degree of buying support came to the fore during the afternoon session to see the New York market recover some of the earlier losses of the day. The London market recovered marginally from the day’s low, while the New York market recovered some of the earlier losses but ultimately settled near the bottom of the day’s comparatively narrow range, ending the session on a subdued note.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 70.13% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note, with 70.59% of earlier losses of the day intact.  This soft close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day, as the markets were seen to encounter a large degree of selling pressure, and with first notice day against the May position in New York due next week Wednesday with 11,712 lots open interest, might lead one to think that the markets are due for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: