Coffee Market report

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market increase their net long position within the market by 2.35% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 13th. September; to register a net long position of 42,807 Lots. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market decreased their net long position within the market by 0.10%, to register a net long position of 40,166 Lots on the day.

Over the same week the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their long position within the market by 1.44%, to register net long position of 38,160 Lots. This net long position which is the equivalent of 10,818,190 bags is most likely to have been decreased again, following the period of mixed but overall more negative trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money Fund sector within this market.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Non Commercial sector of this market increase their net long position within this market by 12.30% during the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 13th September; to register a long position of 36,078 Lots. This net long position which is the equivalent of 6,013,000 bags has most likely to have increased following the period of mixed but overall more positive trade that has since followed.

The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 63.04 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 41.82% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, continues to inspire support for the robusta coffee sector of the industry.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 4,812 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,266,663 bags. There was similarly a decrease of 1,689 bags to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 11,194 bags.

The commodity markets were mixed but mostly positive in trade yesterday, with speculative sentiment oscillating ahead of the two day U.S. Federal Reserve Bank meetings to begin later today. The U.S. Dollar inched lower against other major currencies, lending support to commodities priced in U.S. currency, as energy and precious metals markets posted buoyant results on the day. It was a firmer day for Oil, Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Soybean, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets, although a softer day posted for Copper and Corn. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.59% higher; to see this Index registered at 417.72. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady in early trade and trading at 1.303 to Sterling and 1.117 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is tending softer in early trade and selling at 44.87 per barrel.

The London market started the day on a steady note yesterday, while the overall firmer sentiment within the general commodity complex provided almost immediate support for the New York market, which gapped higher on opening and lacking any significant volume of producer seller pressure the upward move rapidly triggered stops along the way. The morning performance in London was muted in comparison although the afternoon session and with the continued upward trend of New York taking in the lead as the U.S. Dollar lost ground, to bring about a fresh bout of speculative and fund buyer support in the London market. The afternoon session in both markets maintained a positive track to bring forth additional speculative confidence, albeit within a narrow band once the new trading levels had been established with resistance on either side of the late afternoon session to see both markets finish the day just off from the day’s highs, and after a relatively good volume day in both markets, to set the close yesterday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT  NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
SEP      1953 + 30                         SEP    151.50 + 4.40
NOV    1960 + 23                         DEC   152.80 + 4.40
JAN     1980 + 25                          MAR 156.00 + 4.25
MAR   1990 + 25                          MAY 157.80 + 4.25
MAY   1997 + 25                          JUL   159.50 + 4.15
JUL     2004 + 24                          SEP   160.90 + 4.20
SEP     2012 + 22                          DEC  162.70 + 4.15
NOV   2020 + 22                          MAR 164.40 + 4.10
JAN    2029 + 22                          MAY  165.45 + 4.10
MAR  2036 + 22                          JUL    166.40 + 4.10