Coffee Market Report
| With most of the September coffee export registrations in hand, the General Statistics Office of the Vietnam Government have estimated that the countries coffee exports for the month shall be approximately 2 million bags, which is in excess of the earlier trade and exporter forecasts for exports of between 1.67 million and 1.83 million bags. According to their estimates the export forecast for this month would indicate that the prevailing cumulative export performance will see Vietnam’s coffee exports of mostly robusta coffees for the twelve months of the present October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year reach a record 29 million bags. The size of the current crop is already factored into the markets and with attention on the next Vietnam crop harvest that is due to begin in October, the prospects of a smaller crop of around 26.50 million bags according to the median of general industry and trade range of estimates ahead of the harvest.
The November to December contracts arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 62.56 usc/Lb., while this equates to a 40.86% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively attractive to roasters in comparison to arabica coffee prices, continues to inspire support for the robusta coffee sector of the industry. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange posted an increase of 1,343 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 1,266,486 bags. There was a drawdown of 5,068 bags in the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 4,335 bags. The commodity markets were mixed in trade yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets rallying on the news that the OPEC meetings hosted in Algeria, reached agreement on production limitations, while the U.S. Dollar held steady against other major currencies on the day. It was a firm day for Oil, Sugar, Copper, Platinum and Palladium markets, a steady finish for Coffee and Copper, and a softer day for Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets yesterday. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.25% higher; to see this Index registered at 419.92. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady in early trade and trading at 1.30 to Sterling and 1.12 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and trading at 47.98 per barrel. The London and New York markets started the day yesterday with a degree of early buoyancy in relatively thin volume, but with both markets taking a dip toward midsession with London notably thin and near to par, New York broke into negative territory. While London held within a narrow range, this market gradually followed New York into negative territory in the latter half of the day. In an absence of fresh fundamental news, the speculative direction in New York seemed to be influenced primarily by the overall mixed macro sentiment within the commodity sector, to track lower as the day progressed. The markets did however register a recovery toward the last hours of the trading day, to set the close in London on a narrowly positive note, in the middle of the day trading range, and a close in New York in negative territory but closer to the highs in this market after an overall softer day, the close yesterday, as follows: LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb. SEP 1991 + 1 |
