Market Reports

As the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year draws to a close, attention is turning to the final export data for the current season and the start of the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year. In Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, the 2025/26 crop has largely been marketed, with production recovering following the lower output recorded in 2023/24 and 2024/25. The median estimates puts Vietnam’s total 2025/26 coffee production at 32.50 million bags, including 31 million bags of Robusta. For the new 2026/27 coffee year, total production is forecast to increase to drop marginally at a median 31 million bags, comprising 29.80 million bags of Robusta and 1.20 million bags of Arabica. The late summer rain continues as usual over the main central highland’s coffee districts in Vietnam, as coffee develops toward the new harvest due to seasonally, start in October this year.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange have begun to register gradual increases over the last number of days. The certified stocks were registered at 247,887 bags yesterday; this marks an increase of 30,241 bags or 13.90% from the low point recorded on the 15^th September. The increase in Certified Stock levels mainly attributed new registrations from Brazil as the new 2026/27 crop begins to flow to market. In comparative terms, certified stock levels are still at a very lows level, indicating a decrease of 412,062 bags or 62.44% from the same time last year when the certified washed arabica coffee stocks registered 659,949 bags on 17^th September 2025.

The washed arabica coffee origins that can deliver to the certified warehouse exchange stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. These origins are deliverable to the exchange at varying price premiums or discounts and in view of the prevailing price structure in New York. Brazil semi-washed arabica coffee contributing 15.51%, along with shipments from Honduras contributing 22.40% and Peru contributing 19.64%. These daily released figures are received by the speculative sector of the markets, as an indication of arabica coffee availability, in the consumer markets where these exchange certified coffee stocks are held and continued daily increases could be viewed as a bearish factor by the speculative sector even though overall registrations remain at very low levels.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee from The Central Bank in Brazil announced at yesterday’s policy meeting that they would decrease the current Selic rate of 14% by 25 basis points to 13.75%, this as inflation begins to ease as the Brazil Real has strengthened by 8.33% to the US Dollar since the beginning of 2026.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered an increase of 14,408 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 247,887 bags, with 76.52% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 189,691 bags and the remaining 23.48% being held in the USA at a total 58,196 bags. Of this, a total 38,452 or 15.51% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 22.40% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 55,534 bags and 19.64% from Peru at a total 48,696 bags. The pending grading decreased by 17,577 bags on the day, registering 31,168 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 122.69 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 44.37% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, while the US Dollar lost ground on the day following the announcement of a 25-basis point interest rate increase on Wednesday, with expectations of an additional interest rate hike to come in October. Renewed tensions in the Middle East are adding further uncertainty to commodity markets, with oil prices rising amid concerns around energy supply and shipping. For commodities in general, the main implications are higher fuel and freight costs, particularly if disruptions to key shipping routes persist, while higher energy prices could also add to global inflation and influence currencies and interest-rate expectations.  The Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.337 Sterling, at 1.149 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.125 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a slightly softer note, while the New York market started the day trading near to unchanged at the start of the day. The London market quickly lost ground trading lower throughout the morning session. The New York market gained some ground at the start of the morning session, before losing momentum to trend in a downward direction heading toward mid-morning session.  The New York market found renewed support during the afternoon session while the London market remained somewhat subdued. The New York market experienced some upward momentum before encountering resistance and trending back towards par in the late afternoon session, the market settled on a softer note with more than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market followed the New York market lower and settled on a softer note at the close with most of the earlier losses of the day intact near to the lows of the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 72.22% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 72.66% of earlier losses of the day intact.

This softer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of selling pressure albeit with comparatively light volumes of trade, with the New York market settling on a modest softer note. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: