Market Reports

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 97.30% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 11^th September 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 98.90% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 6.32 million bags of their forecast 6.49 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season.

The Brazil arabica regions have experienced sporadic rainfall during the first half of September, with the medium forecasts presently looking towards the possibility of some light rains to continue through to rest of the month and into October. The weather data collated from the expansive areas in Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, reflect soil moisture in the top 0 to 1.6m of the ground tracking at the high end of the five-year average, since the start of the calendar year, and 39.10% above the five-year norm for the month of August plotted. This related to higher-than-normal rainfall received ahead of harvest as well as during the winter months, one might comment that the key factors looking ahead will be the extent to which the anticipated El Nino weather event could potentially impact the prospects for the flowering of the 2027/28 crop during the last quarter of the year.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered an increase of 15,833 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 233,479 bags, with 75.04% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 175,197 bags and the remaining 24.96% being held in the USA at a total 58,282 bags. Of this, a total 23,920 or 10.25% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 23.81% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 55,584 bags and 20.86% from Peru at a total 48,696 bags. The pending grading decreased by 16,210 bags on the day, registering 48,745 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 125.92 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 44.72% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following the announcement from the US Federal Reserve that interest rates will be raised by 0.25%, pushing the US Dollar firmer on the day which is traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies.  The Cocoa, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Sugar market remained unchanged on the day, while the Coffee, Corn, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.338 Sterling, at 1.146 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.152 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading on mixed near to unchanged notes respectively. The trend was quickly affirmed in London, with the market losing momentum and trending softer during the early morning session. The New York market was slower to react and, having initially opened around unchanged, also began to trade softer as the morning progressed. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build resistance as the day progressed. The arrival of the Americas at the start of their business day pushed New York lower, triggering further selling along the way to accentuate the losses for the day. This assisted in triggering further speculative selling which saw the New York market lose ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make further losses throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the downward momentum during the afternoon session before finding support to recover some of the earlier losses of the day and settle on a softer note at the close. The London market settled on a softer note at the close, with more than half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 67.11% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 31.82% of earlier losses of the day intact.

This softer close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note with most of the earlier losses of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a modest softer note at the close albeit back from the day’s lows, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: