Market Reports

In the latest consumer stock reports, which are released retrospectively, the European Coffee Federation, E.C.F. have reported that the port warehouse coffee stocks held in reporting warehouses in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, have registered a 3.06% increase during the month of June 2026 to total 7,366,983 bags at the end of the month. The stocks are reported as 2,976,400 bags robusta coffee, 1,957,017 bags natural arabica coffee Including Brazil semi-washed, and 2,433,566 bags washed arabica coffee.

This figure reported at the end of June 2026 is 6.94% lower to the same time last year when the port warehouse coffee stocks registered at 7,916,100 at the end of June 2025. The overall European Coffee Federation port warehouse stocks reported, include the certified coffee stocks that are held in certified warehouses and registered to the New York and London exchanges. The current levels of coffee stocks, which include the certified coffee stocks that are held in certified warehouses, would equate to close to seven weeks of roasting activity, or around half of what would normally be considered comfortable for European consumer stocks, and most would consider to be a low reserve. The historic low was reported in March 2024 at a total 6.40 million bags.

As the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year draws to a close for coffee producer countries that are positioned on or north of the Equator, further production reports and export data can be expected to come to the fore.  This, ahead of the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year to start soon and the main crop harvest to begin in Colombia, Mexico, in Central America; Costa Rica, El Salvador Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua; East and West Africa; as well as larger coffee producers and exporters to consumer markets, in southeast Asia; India and Vietnam.  The forecast for the coming year is mixed in terms of production performance, within the El Niño climate phenomenon landscape.  Within Colombia, the largest washed arabica producing country, there is a forecast potential ahead of the washed arabica coffee harvest at a median estimate 13 million bags. This country, with local value addition and soluble manufacture can supplement local production with imported green coffee, with Brazil and Peru positioned as the two primary sources of imported green coffee.  Local consumption is reported to register steady year on year, forecast at an estimated 2.20 million bags.

The collective Mexico and Central American producer bloc is forecast to bring forth a potential marginal decrease of 2.32% when compared to 2025/26.  Although there are uncertainties around the climatic impact through development, as well as internal harvest challenges, production is estimated to be reach the region of 16.80 million bags for the 2026/27 coffee year.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York arabica market registered a decreased of 286 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 217,646 bags, with 73.22% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 159,364 bags and the remaining 26.78% being held in the USA at a total 58,282 bags. Of this, a total 8,670 or 3.98% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.54% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 55,584 bags and 22.37% from Peru at a total 48,696 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 64,955 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 125.75 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 44.33% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve monetary policy interest rate decision due to be announced later today, while the leading influence oil markets were firmer on the day.  The Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.348 Sterling, at 1.154 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.153 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading on modest softer notes respectively. The trend was quickly extended in London to see the market lose momentum and trend softer during the early morning session. The New York market was slower to react and having set a lower level, traded either side of par in a comparatively quiet volume morning. Both the New York and London markets were seen to build resistance as the day progressed. The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day pushed New York lower, triggering sell stops along the way to accentuate the losses for the day, this assisted to trigger speculative long liquidation which saw the New York market lose ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make losses throughout the afternoon session. The New York market continued the downward momentum before finding support late in the day to limit the day’s losses. The London market recovered from the days lows to settle on a softer note at the close, with more than half of the days losses intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 61.36% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 84.05% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day in a good volume day, as the markets sustained a large degree of selling pressure, might lead one to think that the markets are due for less than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: