Market Reports

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 95.40% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 4^th September 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 97% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 6.25 million bags of their forecast 6.49 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season.

With the current Brazil harvest now nearing completion, and following unseasonal rainfall during June and July, the month of August was predominantly dry, allowing harvesting and drying activity to progress. Short term forecasts currently indicate the possibility of sporadic rainfall through September, while daytime temperatures are expected to remain broadly in line with the five-year average, in the range of 22–26°C.

The return of more consistent seasonal rainfall, which typically arrives across the main Brazilian coffee belt from September into October, will be closely watched as the focus shifts towards the development of the 2027 crop. Adequate rainfall during this period is important to stimulate flowering and provide the moisture required to support early bean development. There have been some regions reporting rainfall and early flowering, while timing and distribution of rain across the vast regions of the arabica growing states, will remain a key consideration for the market over the coming months to set the next arabica crop developing over the months ahead before harvesting begins around mid-2027.

Weather remains one of the most important variables for the coffee market in view of the overall low global consumer market inventory, with Central America sold out, a slow flow from Colombia and, Brazil aside, which is now registering an improved export performance, there is a limitation to mid-year arabica harvest producer countries to replenish the arabica demand in the primary northern hemisphere coffee consumer markets.

The potential for a strong El Niño through late 2026 and into early 2027 has raised concerns around increased heat and altered rainfall patterns across parts of Asia, Central America, and Brazil, although the impact is likely to vary by in timing related to the seasonal development of the coffee in each country or region.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 1,614 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 220,452 bags, with 73.41% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 161,834 and the remaining 26.59% being held in the USA at a total 58,618 bags. Of this, a total 8,670 or 3.93% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.24% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 55,634 bags and 22.09% from Peru at a total 48,696 bags. The pending grading increased by 38,273 on the day, registering 55,270 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 134.56 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 46.07% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day while market await fresh inflation news to provide cues on interest rate direction.  The Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.355 Sterling, at 1.164 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.103 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday in muted volume, trading in modest softer territory. The markets continued to trade in softer territory to set a new low for the day before finding support to make gains throughout the remainder of the morning session.  Both the New York and London markets buoyed firmer as support continued during the early morning session, gaining momentum in modest volume for the day.  The arrival of the America’s at the start of their business day was met with a large degree of buying support, triggering buy stops along the way to accentuate the gains for the day, and speculative short covering which saw both the New York and London markets gain ground quickly throughout the afternoon session, with the London market following suit to make gains throughout the afternoon session. The New York market encountered resistance late in the day, as the upward momentum was capped, the market dropped back and settled on a firm note at the close, with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market also dropped back from the earlier highs of the day to settle on a firmer note with only some of the earlier gains of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a modest positive note, with 19.18% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise modest positive note with 8.38% of earlier gains of the day intact. This firmer close for the markets might indicate some degree of confidence, albeit that the markets dropped back from the day’s high during the afternoon session, to settle with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact to possible see the markets set for a follow through hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: