Market Reports

The Ugandan Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Department of Coffee Development have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of July were 148,695 bags, or 14.94% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 846,376 bags.  Uganda robusta exports registered a 15.04% decrease when compared to the same month last year, to total 775,148 bags while arabica exports registered a comparative 13.80% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 71,228 bags exported in July 2026.

The report also informs that the cumulative exports for the first ten months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are 16,201 bags or 0.25% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 6,521,263 bags. During the month of July 2026, the value of exports has decreased by 18.40% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 204.07 million US Dollars.  This latter factor in line with the futures market decline in value from record highs, through the same time.

A weaker July export performance appears to have been largely a reflection of the delayed start to Uganda’s main Robusta harvest. Early pickings began in June, but frequent rainfall across the central producing regions slowed cherry ripening and limited the initial flow of coffee, pushing the main harvest later into the season.   The seasonal delay tightened nearby supply and restricted the availability of coffee for shipment during June and July, contributing to the year-on-year decline in exports. As harvesting gathered pace through August, the flow of exportable coffee has improved, and one might expect to see this reflected in the August export reports.

Looking ahead, Uganda which is Africa’s largest robusta coffee producer, is projected to produce 7 million bags robusta coffee, in the October 2026, to September 2027 coffee year, around 200,000 bags down, versus the record production of 7.20 million bags robusta coffee in 2025/26. Reports from the interior note that competition and local speculation within this producing country remains strong resulting in higher internal price expectations, even as London futures market, which started the year trading at US$ 3,949.00 per Mt and has registered a softer overall performance since then.

The New York Arabica market was closed yesterday due to the Labour Day holiday, which left the London market to trade solo for the day.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 223,712 bags, with 74.08% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,734 and the remaining 25.92% being held in the USA at a total 57,978 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.02% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.93% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,009 bags and 22.23% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 141.15 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 47.75% price discount for London robusta coffee.

The commodity markets lacked the participation of many of the USA based markets yesterday, which were closed due to the Labour Day holiday on Monday the 7^th September, to provide no direction for the overall macro commodity index for the day.  The Cocoa, Sugar, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee and Gold markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.353 Sterling, at 1.162 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.126 Brazil Real.

The London market trading solo for the day yesterday, started the day trading on a firmer note, before being pressured lower during the early morning session. The market continued a softer trajectory as resistance was encountered to see the London market move lower during the remainder of the morning session to set a new low for the day.  As the afternoon progressed the London market found support bear to the days lows to rebound and trend back towards par. The market traded in a comparatively narrow range for the remainder of the session before encountering a degree of selling pressure late in the day to see the London market drop back from the midafternoon highs and settle on a softer note at the close albeit recovering more than half of the earlier losses of the day.

The London market ended the day yesterday on a modestly negative note, with 40.98% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on Friday, on a modest positive note with 4.54% of earlier gains of the day intact. This softer close for the London market, with the market trading solo on the day to settle on a negative note albeit recovering from the lows of the day may bring a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set in London yesterday and in New York on Friday, as follows: