Market Reports

While reports suggest that Vietnam coffee farmers have mostly sold their 2025/26 crop, and coffee reportedly held by internal traders and exporters at the port city of Ho Chi Minh, September is the last month of the seasonal October to September export year.  Production has registered a recovery from this largest robusta producing country following two consecutive lower production years in 2023/24 and 2024/25.  The current 2025/26 year which is almost complete has performed in line with forecasts and expectations to reach the estimated 29.50 million bags robusta production and robusta exports for the seasonal year to date, reported at 27.58 million bags.  This, with one month of exports ahead, a carryover into the year estimated to be 689,000 bags and the average monthly exports at 2.51 million bags, would indicate that overall robusta exports from the current 25/26 year could reach close to 30 million bags. The late summer rain continues as usual over the main central highland’s coffee districts in Vietnam, as coffee develops toward the new harvest due to seasonally, start in October this year.  The forecast remains a steady average of 29.50 million bags robusta coffee. Vietnam celebrated their National Day holiday earlier this week, which may lead to a somewhat muted close to the week from the world’s largest robusta producer.

In other coffee news, recent research continues to highlight the potential health benefits associated with regular coffee consumption, which may further support coffee’s positive positioning among consumers. According to an article published by Medical News Today, research covered in recent studies suggests that coffee consumption may be associated with improved cardiovascular and liver health. A scientific statement from the American Heart Association, published in July 2026, found that consuming three to five cups of coffee per day is generally considered safe for most healthy adults and may be associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular conditions including atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke. Further research published in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology found that consuming five or more cups of coffee per day was associated with lower risks of cirrhosis, liver cancer and liver-related mortality. In addition, a 2025 clinical trial published in the Journal of The American Medical Association found that consuming at least one cup of coffee per day was associated with a lower likelihood of recurrent atrial fibrillation. While these findings do not suggest that consumers should increase their coffee intake, the growing body of research may strengthen perceptions of coffee as a beverage that can form part of a healthy lifestyle and could contribute positively to its long-term consumer appeal.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 50 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 223,712 bags, with 74.08% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,734 and the remaining 25.92% being held in the USA at a total 57,978 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.02% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.93% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,009 bags and 22.23% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 142.31 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 48.18% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, following more measured comments from the US Federal Reserve Governor regarding interest rate direction for this month’s policy meeting as inflation indicators begin to show signs of easing. The Soybean, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.353 Sterling, at 1.163 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.100 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading to the north of par, while the New York market started the day trading to the south of par on a softer note from the outset. The direction in London was set early, to see the London market drop back from the early highs and trend softer, taking a lower track as the early morning progressed. The New York market continued to trade on negative territory for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets continued to trade below par, as selling pressure increased. The activity in both markets was modest as the afternoon progressed with New York setting a new low for the day before finding support to recover albeit still trading in softer territory, the London market followed suit to likewise set a new high for the day’s session before encountering resistance to reverse the trend and track lower. The London market traded in softer territory for the remainder of the days’ session, before finding support near to the lows of the day. The New York market was also seen to trade back towards par during the late afternoon session. This support continued through to the close, with the New York market trading back towards par to settle on a softer note at the close with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market was seen to settle on a softer note at the close, with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 41.56% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 32.93% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a good trade volume session, and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: