Market Reports

In the latest round of independent Brazil crop forecast updates, the consultancy and commodity broker StoneX has come forth with their report to revise their Brazil coffee production forecast lower by 2.60% from their earlier estimate to now forecast that production could potentially be around 75.30 million bags the current July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year.  Their forecast anticipates 51.80 million bags of mostly natural arabica coffee to come from this leading producer, 3.18% higher from their previous estimate, along with an estimated 25.40 million bags Conilon robusta coffee, 1.12% higher from their previous forecast. This estimate is at the upper end of the median average of independent forecasters who foresee on average, the overall Brazil 2026/27 coffee production to potentially reach 72 million bags.

StoneX has also forecast that global coffee demand for the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year could reach approximately 172.50 million bags, representing year-on-year growth of 2.50% against a global coffee production that is forecast to reach 182.50 million bags, 7.29% higher than the previous year, implying a return to surplus supply of close to 10 million bags. The projected ten million bag surplus that is currently forecast to come, represents a rebalancing rather than a return to surplus, following the years of deficit that have left global origin carryover stocks at historically low levels.

The world’s largest coffee cooperative Cooxupe, in Brazil have come forth with a report to confirm that their members have harvested 91.90% of the new, majority natural processed arabica crop coffees as at the 28^th August 2026.  This compared with the same period last year, and a harvest of 94.90% of the new crop. Cooxupe have reported a total of 6.25 million bags of their forecast 6.80 million bags to be received by Cooxupe received thus far in the current harvest season.

The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of August have registered 13.70% higher than the same month in the previous year, at 2,200,000 bags. The cumulative export performance for the first eleven months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year in Vietnam the largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee to consumer markets, is reported to be 5,860,000 bags or 25.83% higher than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative ten-month total at 28,543,334 bags.

The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time reported the country’s coffee revenue value for the first eight months of 2026, is reported at 8.60% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 6 billion US Dollars.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 149 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 223,762 bags, with 74.09% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,784 and the remaining 25.91% being held in the USA at a total 57,798 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.95% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,059 bags and 22.22% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 143.61 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 48.18% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, as the US Dollar was softer on the day while the leading in influence Oil markets were firmer on the day. The Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.349 Sterling, at 1.160 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.093 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a softer note yesterday, followed by New York on a modest near to unchanged note at the start of the day. The direction in London was set early, to see the London market drop back and track lower during the early morning session. The New York market continued to trade on negative territory for the remainder of the morning session.  The activity in both markets was modest as the morning progressed with New York finding support to recover from the early lows, the London market followed suit to likewise recover from the early lows before encountering sustained resistance to reverse the trend and track lower. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets continued to trade below par, as selling pressure increased. The London market traded in softer territory for the remainder of the days’ session, before finding support near to the lows of the day. The New York market encountered a large degree of resistance late in the day to drop back and set a new low. The New York market recovered from the lows to settle on a softer note near to the lows of the day. The London market continued to trade in negative territory albeit above the day’s lows, to settle on a softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 68.75% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 80.50% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a modest trade volume session, and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows