Market Reports

The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of July were 83,395 bags or 15.51% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 454,462 bags. The island nation’s cumulative robusta coffee exports for the first four months of the current April 2026 to March 2027 coffee year are reported to be 302,417 bags or 18.03% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 1,374,636 bags.

These new crop export figures reflect lower year on year during the first four seasonal months of the current coffee export year, as there has been a slight delay to export shipments due to weather conditions experienced during harvest. The figures for July indicate that exports are beginning to pick up pace, albeit lagging slightly behind the same time last year. The new Indonesia April 2026 to March 2027 coffee export year, is forecast to reach an overall 11.38 million bags, or 8.01% lower than the previous coffee year. The production figures for the 2026/27 coffee year are forecast to be made up of 10 million bags robusta coffee, down 9.05% from the previous year and 1.38 million bags arabica Coffee, up 0.75% from the previous year.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, is pegged to have produced 31 million bags robusta coffee during the October 2025 to September 2026 crop year, representing a 13.55% increase compared with the previous season. The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports for the first ten months of the current 2025/26 coffee are 23.87% higher than the same period in the previous year, to cumulative total 26.34 million bags. Looking ahead, production for the 2026/27 crop, which will begin harvesting towards the end of this year, is forecast at approximately 29.50 million bags robusta coffee. Of this volume, Vietnam is expected to export around 25.50 million bags of green coffee, accounting for an estimated 49.5% of global robusta exports.

One might think that the market has largely absorbed the production estimates for the now completed July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee crop, with the median estimate placing Brazil’s conilon robusta production at 25.50 million bags. Brazil’s domestic market remains the primary destination for conilon robusta, with annual consumption estimated at approximately 22 million bags. The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s conilon coffee exports for first month of the current July 2026 to June 2027 Brazil coffee year to be 84.39% higher year on year at a total 851,235 bags. Conilon exports from Brazil represent roughly 8.50% of global robusta exports.

Uganda, Africa’s largest robusta producer, is projected to produce 7 million bags robusta coffee during the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year. Robusta exports are expected to total approximately 6.85 million bags, accounting for around 14.5% of global robusta exports. The Ugandan Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Department of Coffee Development, , have reported that their country’s cumulative robusta exports for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are registered at 5.67 million bags or 2.40% higher year on year, although one might note that competition within this producing country remains strong resulting in higher internal prices.

Across the four major robusta producing origins, domestic demand and value addition are becoming increasingly relevant to the global supply picture. Indonesia already has a mature domestic coffee industry, while Brazil and Vietnam continue to invest in soluble, roasted and ground coffee production. As these industries expand, an increasing share of locally produced coffee is being consumed or processed domestically rather than entering the export market as green coffee. This could gradually tighten the proportion of production available to international buyers, even in years of strong overall output.

Weather remains one of the more important variables for the robusta market, with attention increasingly focused on the development of an El Niño weather event towards the end of this year. Historically, El Niño has tended to bring hotter and drier conditions to key producing areas across Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as parts of India and Brazil, while potentially increasing rainfall across sections of East Africa. The 2015/16 El Niño demonstrated how quickly weather can alter the global supply outlook. Vietnam and Indonesia experienced significant heat and moisture stress during critical stages of robusta crop development, contributing to lower production, while irregular rainfall in Brazil affected flowering conditions. This learned history provides a reason for the market to remain cautious, although it is still too early to assume that the developing El Niño will result in a similar outcome. The impact on coffee will ultimately depend on the timing, duration and intensity of the event, as well as the specific weather conditions experienced in each producing region. For now, weather remains a key topic of discussion and is likely to become an increasingly important market factor in the weeks and months ahead.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange decreased by 65 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 223,911 bags, with 74.09% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,898 and the remaining 25.91% being held in the USA at a total 58,013 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.97% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,157 bags and 22.21% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 152.46 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 49.26% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, ahead of fresh macroeconomic data that is due to be released in the coming days for potential cues on interest rate direction, while the US Dollar was firmer on the day, traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.349 Sterling, at 1.158 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.153 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on firmer notes from the outset of the day. The direction in London was set early, to see the London market drop back and track lower, as the early morning progressed. The New York market followed suit to likewise trade into softer territory for the remainder of the morning session. As the afternoon progressed both the London and New York markets continued to trade below par, as selling pressure increased. The activity in both markets was modest as the afternoon progressed with New York finding pressured lower to set a new low for the day, the London market followed suit to likewise set a new low for the day’s session before encountering support to recover some of the earlier losses. The London market traded in softer territory for the remainder of the days’ session, before finding support near to the lows of the day. The New York market was also seen to trade back towards par during the late afternoon session. This support continued through to the close, with the New York market trading back towards par to settle on a softer note at the close with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market was seen to settle on a softer note at the close, with half of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 54.84% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a negative note with 16.67% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, does little to inspire confidence, albeit that the markets recovered from the lows of the day during what was a good trade volume session, and one might think that the markets are due for a steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: