Market Reports

Rabobank has come forth to report that they foresee that the global coffee balance sheet will record a 8.90 million bag surplus for the 2026/27 coffee year, with global production pegged at 181.70 million bags against consumption at 172.80 million bags.  This anticipated surplus in production is necessary and will go some way to alleviate pipeline inventory at origin as well as consumer markets, that have been depleted over time.  The bulk of the improved production forecast stems from Brazil, which they expect to come in at 73.30 million bags. This follows their summary of the 2025/26 year, which is reported at a total global coffee production of 172.60 million bags versus global coffee demand at a steady 171.40 million bags.

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 97% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 26^th August 2026.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 73.38 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of 25.70 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee that is complete in harvest and approximately 47.68 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags. Following the rain delays during the early stages of the harvest, particularly in the in the arabica regions, the harvest is now near to complete. There have been reports of congestion mounting in port of Santos, as sugar, soyabean and other key Brazil agricultural export crops begin to make their way to consumer markets.

The certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York Exchange have continued their steady decline, falling to the lowest level seen in more than 20 years, to register at 223,976 bags yesterday. This represents a decrease of 486,220 bags, or 68.46%, from the same time last year when certified washed arabica coffee stocks stood at 710,196 bags on 31st August 2025. In comparison, these certified washed arabica coffee stocks have declined by 229,179 bags, or 50.57%, since the beginning of 2026.

The washed arabica coffee origins that can deliver to certified warehouse exchange stocks are Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. These origins are deliverable to the exchange at varying price premiums or discounts, depending on the prevailing price structure in New York. Honduras remains the largest contributor to certified stocks, followed by Peru, while other origins remain comparatively modest. Central American producers are currently well sold ahead of the new 2026/27 crop, with little to no fresh coffee flowing into consumer markets, while there has been little incentive for coffees from origins such as Brazil to deliver to the exchange in the view of internal market prices. These daily stock figures are viewed as a directional influence indicator by the speculative sector of the markets, as an indicator of arabica supplies within the major consumer markets. The historically low level of certified stocks continues to leave the nearby market vulnerable to potential squeezes and heightened volatility.

From a technical perspective, the latest Commitment of Traders report showed the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decreasing their net long position by 3.66% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25^th August 2026, to register a net long position of 14,494 lots, equivalent to 4,108,985 bags. The Commercial sector, meanwhile, held a net short position of 52,622 lots, equivalent to 14,918,104 bags, an increase of 2.22% over the same period. Within the shorter-term Managed Money sector, the net long position was marginally reduced by 0.17% to 26,693 lots, while the longer-term Index Fund sector increased their net long position by 2.61% to 35,003 lots.

Since the Commitment of Traders cut-off, the market has moved lower and thus possible that the speculative long position has continued to be reduced. The recent correction appears to have been driven more by long liquidation than by a significant build-up of fresh short positions. This is important from a directional perspective, as the market is not yet showing evidence of a broad-based shift towards aggressive speculative short positioning.

The combination of lower open interest and reduced speculative long position suggests that while sentiment has become more cautious, there may be less speculative longs remaining to liquidate should the market continue lower. Conversely, with certified stocks at historically low levels, any renewed speculative buying or short covering could have an acceleration effect on nearby futures pricing. Overall, the underlying certified stock position continues to provide nearby bullish support.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange remained unchanged yesterday, to register these stocks at 223,976 bags, with 74.10% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,963 and the remaining 25.90% being held in the USA at a total 58,013 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.97% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,157 bags and 22.20% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The London Robusta Market was closed yesterday, as the UK celebrated their Summer Bank Holiday, leaving the New York market to trade solo for a shortened day of trade.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 151.43 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 48.61% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, following a surge in oil prices adding to concerns surrounding inflation which may result in higher interest rates to come. The Cocoa, Corn and Sugar markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Soybean market remained unchanged on the day, while the New York Arabica Coffee, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.359 Sterling, at 1.164 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.163 Brazil Real.

The New York market trading solo for a shortened day yesterday started the day trading close to par on a modest softer note, the New York market quickly attracted a degree of buying support to see the market trend firmer and into positive territory throughout the early morning session. The market was seen to hit a continue a firmer path for the remainder of the session. As the afternoon progressed the market encountered resistance near to the day’s highs in modest volumes of trade. The market dropped back and set a range in modest softer territory, to continue to trade lower throughout the remainder of the day’s session. The New York market settled on a softer note albeit back from the day’s lows with only some of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on Friday on a negative note, with 74.29% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a negative note with 35.53% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the New York market trading solo on the day, does little to indicate or inspire confidence, with the New York market settling near to the lows of the day, one might think that the markets are due for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday in London and yesterday in New York, as follows: