Market Reports

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector decrease their net long position by 3.66% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25^th August 2026:  to register a net long position of 14,494 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,108,985 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed trade that has since followed. The Commercial sector held 52,622 Lots or the equivalent of 14,918,104 bags net short position on the day, an increase of 2.22% over the same week of trade.

In the same report from the New York arabica coffee market, the shorter term in nature Managed Money Fund marginally decreased their net-long position by 0.17% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25^th August 2026; to register a new long position at 26,693 Lots. The longer term in nature, the Index Fund sector of this market increased their net-long position by 2.61% within the market, to register a new net-long position of 35,003 Lots on the day.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector decrease their net long position by 10.42% within the market over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 25^th August 2026: to register a new net long position of 26,289 Lots which is the equivalent of 4,381,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been decreased further, following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The International Coffee Organisation, ICO, have come forth with their July 2026 monthly report to indicate that the global coffee exports for the month of June 2026 were 0.31% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 11.88 million bags. This has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 0.41% lower than the same period in the previous year, at a reported total 106.16 million bags.

The report reflects a larger export performance from South America during June, which registered a 17.30% increase in exports to consumer markets, when compared to the same month in the previous year, to register 4.80 million bags through to the end of June.  This is the second consecutive monthly increase in 18 months, driven predominantly by Brazil whose exports registered 3.09 million bags or 17.40% higher during June 2026.

The report confirms a comparative decrease in exports from Asia, as Vietnam, India and Indonesia cumulatively registered 2.40% lower in exports, when compared to the same month in the previous year to total 3.63 million bags, largely led by a decrease in exports of 33.30% from Indonesia during June 2026, at 580,000 bags, while India and Vietnam in contrast reported a 14.60% and 6.10% increase in exports respectively during June.

The ICO report similarly includes within the total global exports, the export figures from Mexico and the traditional washed arabica Central American bloc; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, to report for June that exports were 15.30% lower than the same period in the previous year to total 1.66 million bags, largely led by a combination of Mexico and Nicaragua whose exports were 44% lower year on year at a total of 410,000 bags.

Within the ICO report, exports posted a decrease by 13.50% year on year from Africa to a total 1.79 million bags during the month of June.  The decrease in export performance contributed in large part by Uganda whose exports were down by a 30.60% year on year at a total of 700,000 bags.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have reported corrected preliminary data, that for the month of August thus far, green coffee exports have registered 2.94 million bags. This follows a report released on the 24^th August reporting preliminary data at a low 1.71 million bags, Cecafé has confirmed the initial report was incorrect and attributed to a technical error.  Brazil has cumulatively registered exports of green coffee for the first seven months of this calendar year, to be 7.20% lower, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous year, at a total of 18.37 million bags. This number is made up of 14.99 million bags of arabica coffee down 16.59% from the previous coffee year and 3.39 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase year on year of 84.81% versus the previous year.

Within Colombia and following the severe earthquake on the 10^th August, there is some positive news in that repairs to internal infrastructure is underway and operations in the countries key export port of Buenaventura have returned to normal. In coffee terms, a positive sign ahead of the main crop harvest which will be due to begin towards the end of the year, albeit noting that internally prices remain high due to limited flow from the mid-year mitaca crop.

The new coffee crops in Mexico and Central America are developing ahead of the new October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year, although one must note the weather concerns with El Nino on the horizon which may potentially bring with it warmer dry weather to this washed arabica producing bloc, a factor that is being closely monitored by all coffee market participants. There are meanwhile still limited flows of the mid-year new crop coffees form Peru to consumer markets at this time, with growing demand and subsequently increased differentials.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 35 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 223,976 bags, with 74.10% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 165,963 and the remaining 25.90% being held in the USA at a total 58,013 bags. Of this, a total 6,748 or 3.01% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.97% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 58,157 bags and 22.20% from Peru at a total 49,721 bags. The pending grading increased by 2,565 bags on the day, registering 3,205 bags pending grading.

The London Robusta Market will be closed today, as the UK celebrate their Summer Bank Holiday, leaving the New York market to trade solo for a shortened day of trade.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened on Friday, to register this at 152.78 Usc/Lb. This equates to a 48.83% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets on Friday, while the US Dollar firmed on the day, traditionally a bearish factor for commodities traded in other currencies with traders pricing in a 58% chance of an interest rate hike in September according to a poll by Reuters. The New York Arabica Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.359 Sterling, at 1.164 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.163 Brazil Real.

The London market opened the day on a firmer note on Friday, followed by New York on a likewise firmer note from the outset. The London market set a new high for the day during the early morning session before attracting a degree of selling pressure to move lower and into softer territory. The New York market continued to trade in firmer territory albeit oscillating in a comparatively narrow range. As the afternoon progressed, the London market traded below par, while the New York market continued to on a positive note. The London market traded in softer territory for the remainder of the days’ session, before finding support near to the lows of the day. The New York market was seen to trade firmer heading into the afternoon session with some support in the form of moderate volumes. This support continued through to the close, with the New York market trading back towards par to settle on a firmer note at the close with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market was seen to settle on softer note at the close, near to the days lows.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 74.29% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market likewise ended the day on a positive note with 43.54% of earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note albeit back from the day’s lows and the New York market settling on a firmer note, with only some of the earlier gains intact, might see the markets set for a follow through hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set on Friday, as follows: