Market Reports

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé, have reported that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of July are 8.67% higher than the same month last year, to total 2.67 million bags, this number made up of 1.82 million bags of arabica coffee down 8.86% from the same month last year and 851,235 bags of Conilon robusta coffee up 84.39% from the same month last year.   This marks the first month of the new biennially bearing Brazil July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year, for which many independent forecasters have estimated at a median level of around 72 million bags.

The Coffee Exporters Association in Brazil, Cecafé have also reported the cumulative exports of green coffee for the first seven months of this calendar year, to be 7.20% lower, overall, when compared to the same time in the previous year, at a total of 18.37 million bags. This number is made up of 14.99 million bags of arabica coffee down 16.59% from the previous coffee year and 3.39 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, an increase year on year of 84.81% versus the previous year.

The rain-delayed start to the harvest, with vast areas subjected to unusual winter rainfall, has slowed shipments into the new export season. This comes at a time when low carryover stocks are providing limited support to consumer-market demand, increasing the need for a continued drawdown of already-low inventories. Current consumer-market stocks are estimated to represent only around six weeks of roasting activity, a level that most would consider a very low reserve. This tight physical balance is also reflected in the decline in certified stocks and the pronounced backwardation across the New York futures months. The unusually wide spread between the prompt and deferred contracts signals a strong preference for immediate physical availability, with nearby demand exceeding readily deliverable supply. Elevated financing, storage and carrying costs are further discouraging the rebuilding of inventories at this time.

With the month of August seasonally considered to be the last of the winter months, weather forecasters indicating moderate to warm weather conditions for the next fortnight in Brazil.  Speculative focus will soon be turning once more upon the longer-term forecasts and weather prospects for the onset of the new spring and summer rain season for Brazil, to come in the last quarter of the year, to trigger the flowering for the next 2027 crop to come.  The arrival of what is by now, a fairly certain El Nino event in forecasting terms, will be closely monitored.

The Brazil Real currency has strengthened by 5.74% against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2026.   A stronger Brazil Real traditionally discourages export selling from Brazil’s coffee producers, which could see a degree of internal price resistance and a reticence of producers to sell coffee at current market levels.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 835 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 241,838 bags, with 72.43% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 175,158 and the remaining 27.57% being held in the USA at a total 66,680 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.66% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.826% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 64,873 bags and 21.49% from Peru at a total 51,971 bags. The pending grading increased by 1,280 bags on the day, registering 4,530 bags pending grading with 85% from Brazil.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 164.21 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.91% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed but overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, as markets weighed shifting expectations around US monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical developments. While investors awaited key US inflation data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The New York Arabica Coffee and Sugar markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.351 Sterling, at 1.154 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.158 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a firm note respectively. Both markets registered a positive track in a firmer direction in the early morning session. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued in positive territory, making gains throughout the early morning session before being capped to limit the day’s gains and set a new high for the session. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued a modest softer path, dropping back from the earlier highs to trend through par and into negative territory.  The New York market dropped back from the day’s highs late in the session before finding renewed support before the close to settle on a firmer note with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market recovered from the earlier lows to settle on a softer note at the close with some of the earlier losses of the day intact.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 21.43% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 20.91% of earlier gains of the day intact. This follow through mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a softer note with some of the earlier losses of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a firmer note at the close albeit back from the day’s highs, might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows