Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 84% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 5^th August 2026.  The harvest this year is at a slower pace, when compared to the same time last year that was reported at 94% and the five-year average of 90%.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 63.50 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of around 25.43 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee, that is anticipated to come in at 25.70 million bags and approximately 38.07 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.  In other news, Brazil’s Central Bank reduced their benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points during their early August meeting to now be 14%. This as inflation begins to ease as the Brazil Real has strengthened by 8.33% to the US Dollar since the beginning of 2026.

The news overnight to come from Colombia, the largest quality washed arabica coffee producer and third largest coffee producer country after Brazil and Vietnam, is that the country has been subjected to a 7.40 magnitude earthquake, has struck Colombia’s Chocó province, the epicentre near the village of San Jose del Palmar, reverberations across several areas, including parts of the country’s coffee-growing regions. The infrastructure and connectivity to many remote regions adding to the complexity of rescue efforts which will be the urgent focus.  While the country deals with tragic loss and the aftermath of the destruction caused by this event, the call to action has been immediate, while the new President of Colombia Abelardo de la Espriella, sworn in only last week, steers the response. The disastrous impact will take to time to assess, disaster relief is uppermost while rebuild and recovery, is likely to need far more time. In terms of coffee supply disruptions meanwhile, there is no clear outcome at this early stage, while this will be monitored as the mitaca mid-year coffee regions are in harvest, while in other regions, primarily in the Medellin area, coffee is set on the trees and in advanced bean swelling phase, ahead of the end of the year new crop harvest, to come.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 1,499 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 242,673 bags, with 72.52% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 175,993 and the remaining 27.48% being held in the USA at a total 66,680 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.65% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.96% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 65,423 bags and 21.42% from Peru at a total 51,971 bags. The pending grading increased by 1,280 bags on the day, registering 4,530 bags pending grading with 85% from Brazil.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 159.66 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.04% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with key Consumer Price Index Data due to be released this week which will gauge the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy projection. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Soybean, Sugar, Wheat, Gold, Silver Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the New York Arabica Coffee and Corn markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.351 Sterling, at 1.154 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.107 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading to the north of par on a firmer note, while the New York market started the day yesterday trading on a modest near to unchanged softer note. The London market continued to trade on a firmer note, while the New York market was pressured lower throughout the remainder of the early morning session. The London market hit a ceiling for the early morning session early in the day, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued with the market finding support near the day’s lows to recover and trend positive. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued a modest firmer path, gaining support to trend firmer for the remainder of the day’s session.  The New York market traded through par and into softer territory, to set a new low for the day. The New York market found support late in the day to recover from the day’s lows and settle on a modest softer note at the close, with less than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. While the London market settled on a firmer note, albeit back from the day’s high.

The London market ended the day on a positive note, with 28.36% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 36.93% of earlier losses of the day intact. This follow through mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a firmer note with some of the earlier gains of the day intact, and the New York market settling on a softer note at the close albeit back from the day’s lows, might see the markets set for a follow through steady open today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: