Market Reports

In the most recent revision, the U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has left the forecast for global coffee production for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year unchanged at 178.80 million bags, a figure that is 1.14% higher than the previous 2024/25 coffee year.

Their report has revised the earlier forecast for global coffee demand for the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year upward, by 2.41% to 173.46 million bags. This latest forecast anticipates a global coffee surplus of 5.34 million bags. The report forecasts global coffee stocks for the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to close at 24.37 million bags, this estimated figure encompasses both origin and consumer carryover stocks, at 10.72% higher than the previous year.

Looking ahead meanwhile, the same USDA report indicates global coffee production for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year to potentially reach a record 189.67 million bags, or 6.10% higher than the current year. This increase is mostly attributed to the well published and anticipated recovery in Brazil arabica production, along with improved production anticipated to come from Ethiopia, Uganda and Vietnam.

The USDA has forecast Brazil production for the July 2026 to June 2027 coffee year to likely come in at 71.90 million bags, or 14.13% higher than the current 2025/26 crop. This forecast comprises 47.50 million bags of arabica production; an estimate that is a little shy versus industry forecasts that forecast more than 50 million bags; while their estimate for Conilon robusta coffee production against the record production of last year, is pegged to come in at 24.40 million bags in 2026.  This harvest is by most accounts complete and will fuel local coffee consumption and exports through the first half of 2027.

In retrospect, the production performance in Brazil has altered landscape in the past ten years, and while arabica production has scaled upward through time, the Conilon robusta production is near to double. The Brazil 2015/16 season brought forth 36 million bags of arabica coffee; and 13.30 million bags of Conilon robusta. The arabica performance in that year a more notably biennial bearing lower cycle, below a five-year average at the time.  The expansion from the low teens in production of the country’s Conilon robusta sector over the past decade is meanwhile, supported by a sustained growth in Brazil local coffee industry, to include growth in local consumption, value addition, and exports, and supported by efficiencies in cost of production through investment in farm infrastructure, mechanisation and modern farming practices.

The USDA forecasts global coffee consumption demand for the coming October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year to reach a record 179.74 million bags. The forecasts for this coming year, with Brazil in the lead to supply coffee to import consumer markets, would indicate at least a balanced supply and demand outlook for the coffee year ahead.  There is uncertainty however in the approaching El Nino that has stalled an otherwise relatively balanced, and some would have said, even bearish coffee market view for the next six months at least. The lack of action from any producer country and therefore a void of volume activity on the sell side persists.

Meanwhile, the increase in coffee production that is expected to come primarily from Brazil in the 2026/27 coffee year ahead, is necessary.  The USDA forecast indicates a surplus supply to demand factor of 9.93 million bags.  This forecast for a surplus is likely to support pipeline inventories albeit that much of the inventory is held within one producer country with financially fit producers and coffee speculators willing to hold. The focus on the weather patterns toward the last quarter of 2026 may have influence over the additional release of coffee from Brazil, at the same time as Vietnam and the main washed arabica producer bloc, Mexico, Central America and Colombia increase harvest activity picks up pace around the same time.

Although Brazil and Vietnam now make up 68% of total robusta production and the view is generally that the annual overall production of robusta coffee is catching up with worldwide arabica production, it is interesting to note that a window in time glance at ten years ago, the 159 million bags produced during the 2015/16 coffee year, was composed of 57% arabica and 43% robusta coffee.  This compares with a forecast for arabica coffee to account for approximately 53% of global production in 2025/26, with the balance 47% robusta in 2025/26 coffee year.  The retrospective view of consumption at 152 million bags in the 2015/16 coffee year.

The Brazil government have reported preliminary data to illustrate that the country’s green coffee exports for the month of July were 5.04% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2,554,050 bags.  The official breakdown of coffee exports by description for July will be released in the coming days and can be anticipated to detail the export data to arabica, robusta and soluble green coffee equivalent.

The Chinese coffee chain, Luckin Coffee has reported positive news in a 28.50% increase in net revenue during Q2 of 2026, from the same time last year, to total U.S. Dollars 2.33 billion. The coffee chain reports 2,668 new stores in China, in the second quarter of 2026, a total store count to 36,310 stores.

Domestic coffee consumption in China is put at 6.75 million bags by the USDA., while Yunnan province in China is a traditional coffee growing area, that registers around 1.5 to 2 million bags of arabica coffee per annum.  The region is reported to have struggled with inclement weather in 2024, along with the introduction of fusarium that growers had limited experience of, at the time of the outbreak.  There is an expectation that local production will continue to register growth, while 60% of total coffee consumption according to the USDA, is reported to be imported in both green coffee and value-added formats.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 2,520 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 251,417 bags, with 72.81% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 181,217 and the remaining 27.19% being held in the USA at a total 67,680 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.58% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 27.78% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 69,148 bags and 21.28% from Peru at a total 52,971 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 3,250 bags pending grading with 80% from Brazil.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 149.38 Usc/Lb. This equates to 46.44% price discount for London robusta coffee.  The wide arbitrage indicative of a more balanced supply environment within the robusta segment while robusta price looks to be more attractive particularly to the soluble industry and to price sensitive coffee consumer markets.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading influence Oil markets firmer on the day following news of a restriction of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The Corn, Soybean, Sugar and Palladium markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Gold market remained unchanged on the day, while the Coffee, Cocoa, Wheat, Silver and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.345 Sterling, at 1.152 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.112 Brazil Real.

The London market started the day yesterday trading on a slightly firmer note, while the New York market started the day trading near to unchanged at the start of the day. The London market quickly lost ground trading lower throughout the morning session. The New York market gained some ground at the start of the morning session, before losing momentum to trend in a downward direction heading toward mid-morning session.  The New York market found renewed support during the afternoon session while the London market remained somewhat subdued. The New York market experienced some upward momentum before finding some resistance and trending back towards par in the late afternoon session, the market settled on a softer note with more than half of the earlier losses of the day intact. The London market followed the New York market lower and settled on a softer note at the close with most of the earlier losses of the day intact near to the lows of the day.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 95.14% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 61.49% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets, might indicate some degree of selling pressure albeit with some fair volumes of trade, with the New York market settling on a modest softer note. One might therefore think that the markets will be set for a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows