Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 94% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 19^th August 2026.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 71.11 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of 25.70 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee that is complete in harvest and approximately 45.41 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

The National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of July, from this largest washed arabica coffee producer and exporter, registered 310,000, bags or 22.62% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,060,000 bags.  The National Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the country’s cumulative coffee production for the first ten months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year to be 2,335,000 bags or 18.86% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 10,047,000 bags.

In the same report, the National Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia post the country’s coffee exports for the month of July to be 178,000 bags or 15.21% lower than the same month last year, at a total 992,000 bags. The country’s cumulative coffee exports for first ten months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, registered at 2,208,000 bags or 18.97% lower over the same period in the previous coffee year, to a total of 9,430,000 bags.

Following the 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia last week, authorities have been assessing the impact on affected areas and infrastructure. Damage to roads and local infrastructure continue to cause temporary delays to the movement of coffee from producing regions. This could add some pressure to the export flow of the already smaller Colombia mitaca crop in the coming weeks.

The Ugandan Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Department of Coffee Development have reported that their country’s coffee exports for the month of June were 235,162 bags, or 24.02% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 744,540 bags.  Uganda robusta exports registered a 23.60% decrease when compared to the same month last year, to total 668,216 bags while arabica exports registered a comparative 26.80% decrease when compared to the same month last year to total 76,324 bags exported in June 2026.

The report also informs that the cumulative exports for the first nine months of the current October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year are 132,494 bags or 2.40% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 5,674,887 bags. During the month of June 2026, the value of exports have decreased by 37.40% when compared to the same month in the previous year, to total 175.45 million US Dollars.  This latter factor in line with the futures market decline in value from record highs, through the same time.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 836 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 228,378 bags, with 73.71% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 168,329 and the remaining 26.29% being held in the USA at a total 60,049 bags. Of this, a total 7,388 or 3.23% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 25.96% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 59,282 bags and 22.65% from Peru at a total 51,721 bags. The pending grading decreased by 4,530 bags on the day, registering 1,600 bags pending grading.

The November 2026 to December 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened yesterday, to register this at 160.29 Usc/Lb. This equates to 48.68% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was a mixed day on the commodity markets yesterday, while the leading in influence Oil markets were firmer on the day leading to increased inflation concerns in the US which may keep interest rates higher for longer. The London Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Corn, Sugar, Wheat, Gold and Silver markets ended the day on a firmer note, the Platinum market was unchanged on the day while the New York Arabica Coffee, Soybean and Palladium markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.364 Sterling, at 1.169 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.193 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on softer notes respectively. Both markets registered a sideways track in the early morning session. The London market gained support early to hit a ceiling for the session, to introduce sellers at the highs, the choppy trade in New York continued in positive territory, making gains throughout the early morning session before being capped to limit the day’s gains and set a new high for the session. As the afternoon progressed, the London market continued a modest softer path, dropping back from the earlier highs to trend through par and into negative territory.  The New York market dropped back from the day’s highs late in the session before finding renewed support before the close to settle on a firmer note with less than half of the earlier gains of the day intact. The London market recovered from the earlier lows to settle on a modest near to unchanged softer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a modest near to unchanged softer note, with 5% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a positive note with 32.35% of earlier gains of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets, with the London market settling on a modest near to unchanged softer note with all of the earlier losses of the day recovered, and the New York market settling on a firmer note at the close albeit back from the day’s highs, might see the markets set for a follow through steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: