Market Reports

Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 90% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested as of the 12^th August 2026.  Based on their forecast for a new crop of 75.65 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 68.08 million bags of the new crop coffee have been harvested, the coffee made up of 25.70 million bags of Conilon robusta coffee that is complete in harvest and approximately 42.38 million bags of arabica coffee harvested thus far, of a total estimated by Safras & Mercado to come in at 49.95 million bags.

According to the latest update from the U.S. Government’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre CPC, the current El Niño conditions will continue to develop and strengthen in the weeks ahead with a 90% chance that the weather event will be one of the strongest on record during the October to December period later this year. This follows an extended period during which sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remained close to long-term averages. Forecast guidance, including projections from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble NMME, indicates that El Niño will prevail through the end of this year and into early 2027.

The coffee industry continues to pay close attention to these developments, due to the impact that this weather event can have on coffee production. Having a look in history, El Niño is typically associated with warmer and drier weather across Southeast Asia, India, Vietnam, and certain coffee-growing areas of Brazil. Conversely, parts of East Africa often experience above-average rainfall, while southern Africa and sections of South America can be exposed to drier-than-normal conditions.

In the latest consumer stock reports, which are released retrospectively, the European Coffee Federation, E.C.F. have reported that the port warehouse coffee stocks held in reporting warehouses in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, have registered a 3.06% increase during the month of June 2026 to total 7,366,983 bags at the end of the month. The stocks are reported as 2,976,400 bags robusta coffee, 1,957,017 bags natural arabica coffee Including Brazil semi-washed, and 2,433,566 bags washed arabica coffee.

This figure reported at the end of June 2026 is 6.94% lower to the same time last year when the port warehouse coffee stocks registered at 7,916,100 at the end of June 2025. The overall European Coffee Federation port warehouse stocks reported, include the certified coffee stocks that are held in certified warehouses and registered to the New York and London exchanges. The current levels of coffee stocks, which include the certified coffee stocks that are held in certified warehouses, would equate to close to seven weeks of roasting activity, or around half of what would normally be considered comfortable for European consumer stocks and most would consider to be a low reserve. The historic low was reported in March 2024 at a total 6.40 million bags.

The Certified washed arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,855 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 236,430 bags, with 73.07% of these certified stocks held in Europe, at a total of 172,778 and the remaining 26.93% being held in the USA at a total 63,652 bags. Of this, a total 6,428 or 2.71% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, are Brazil washed arabica, and a further 26.90% of these certified coffees, from Honduras at 63,598 bags and 21.98% from Peru at a total 51,971 bags. The pending grading remained unchanged on the day, registering 4,530 bags pending grading with 85% from Brazil.

The September 2026 to September 2026 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday, to register this at 166.84 Usc/Lb. This equates to 50.01% price discount for London robusta coffee.

It was an overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, following inflation readings that showed US inflation was up 3.40% through July from 3.50% in June, in line with expectations. The Cocoa and Sugar markets ended the day on a firmer note, while the Coffee, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the US Dollar trading at 1.348 Sterling, at 1.153 to the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.187 Brazil Real.

The London and New York markets started the day yesterday trading to the south of par on modest softer notes respectively, with the markets gaining a small degree of support to set a new high for the day early in the day. The support was short lived with the markets encountering selling pressure through the early morning session in comparatively muted volumes. Both the London and the New York markets encountered sustained selling pressure during the morning session, extending losses for the day and maintaining a bearish trajectory. As the afternoon progressed, the US Dollar firmed, adding further weight to the markets. Despite the downward pressure, buying support came to the fore during the early afternoon session to see the markets reverse the trend, and recover some of the earlier losses albeit only briefly, as a lack of support at the top saw the markets drop back and into a softer path for the remainder of the day. Both markets recovered marginally from the day’s lows but ultimately settled near the bottom of the day’s range, ending the session on a negative note.

The London market ended the day on a negative note, with 96.26% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 76.92% of earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the markets and with both the New York and the London markets retaining most of the earlier losses to settle near to the lows of the day in a good volume day, as the markets sustained a large degree of selling pressure, might lead one to think that the markets are due for less than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows: